Strategy of Denial

Dongkeun Lee/Republic of Korea Navy

In the Indo-Pacific, navies play a major role in shaping a balance of power that generates deterrent effects. The roles and strategies of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) are crucial to this deterrence. 

When we think about power in international relations, it’s easy to imagine armies clashing on battlefields, tanks rolling across borders and Soldiers digging in along front lines. But in the Indo-Pacific — a region dominated by the vast expanses of the Pacific and Indian oceans — power isn’t wielded by armies on land. Instead, the naval forces of the region’s key players are defining the balance of power. As these nations jockey for influence and security, it’s becoming increasingly clear that traditional, land-based concepts of power don’t fully apply. In the Indo-Pacific, sea power holds the reins, and naval strategies keep potential conflicts in check. 

The concept of the balance of power isn’t just academic jargon; it’s a practical reality that has kept the peace in many parts of the world. When states perceive that there’s a rough equivalence in military capabilities, they’re less likely to risk war because the outcome is uncertain and the costs potentially catastrophic. In regions like Europe, this balance is maintained by armies stationed along borders, ready to defend territory. But the Indo-Pacific’s unique maritime geography means this kind of land-based deterrence isn’t feasible. Instead, the region’s navies create and maintain a balance of power that deters aggression and preserves stability. 

Naval deterrence, however, is more complex than land-based defense. On land, the goal is relatively straightforward: hold territory, or take it from the enemy. At sea, the rules are different. The oceans cannot be occupied or controlled in the same way as land. Fleets cannot maintain a constant presence across vast maritime areas, and they need to return to port for supplies and rest, making it impossible to hold the sea as you might hold a piece of land. This is where naval strategy becomes crucial. Power at sea isn’t just about the number of ships, but how you use them — where they’re deployed, what missions they undertake and how they’re supported. 

This strategic complexity is especially important in the Indo-Pacific, where the vastness of the ocean and the importance of key maritime trade routes make sea power a decisive factor in regional security. The Indo-Pacific encompasses two of the largest oceans, connecting some of the world’s most important economic hubs. The scale of the region means that no single navy can dominate the area simultaneously. Instead, navies must carefully choose where to deploy their forces, concentrating them in key areas where they can exert the most influence. 

The JMSDF and the RAN are not the largest navies in the world, but they play important roles in shaping the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Australia and Japan have developed naval strategies that reflect their geographical realities, strategic interests and relationships with other regional powers, particularly China. 

Australia’s 2024 National Defence Strategy makes clear that Canberra is fully aware of the growing maritime capabilities of China, whose naval ambitions are rapidly expanding. Faced with a significant capability gap, Australia has wisely adopted what it calls a strategy of denial. Rather than attempting to match China’s naval power ship for ship, Australia is focusing on preventing Beijing from controlling key sea routes in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific — regions that are critical to Australia’s security and economic interests. 

This strategy is evident in the RAN’s increased operations in these areas, including hosting large-scale exercises such as Talisman Sabre, which brings together forces from Australia, the U.S. and other regional partners. These exercises not only demonstrate Australia’s commitment to defending its maritime interests but also serve as a signal to potential adversaries that any attempt to dominate these waters will be met with significant resistance. The RAN is also investing in new capabilities, such as the acquisition of nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines through its AUKUS partnership with the United Kingdom and the U.S. The submarines, which can operate for extended periods without surfacing, will greatly enhance Australia’s ability to carry out its denial strategy, providing a stealthy and persistent presence in key maritime areas. 

Japan’s approach, while similar, is shaped by its unique strategic challenges. The JMSDF focuses heavily on denying China’s influence in the East China and South China seas, which are vital not only to Japan’s economic security but also to its territorial integrity. The East China Sea is home to the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, where tensions between Japan and China have simmered for years. Meanwhile, the South China Sea is a critical corridor for Japan’s energy imports, with about 80% of its oil transiting the waters. 

The JMSDF has significantly increased the frequency and scale of its naval exercises, often in partnership with the U.S., to demonstrate its ability to operate effectively in contested waters. For instance, the biennial Keen Sword naval exercise between the JMSDF and U.S. Navy was held in the East China Sea, sending a message to Beijing that Japan will defend its interests. Japan’s annual Indo-Pacific Deployment, which includes visits to Southeast Asia and other strategic regions, further underscores its commitment to maintaining a presence in key maritime areas. 

The strategic focus of the JMSDF and the RAN highlights the critical role of navies in maintaining the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. In this region, where oceans separate states and connect economies, sea power is the most effective means of projecting influence and deterring conflict. The openness and vastness of the maritime domain make it hard for any single navy to dominate, so the ability to deny control to an adversary becomes a key aspect of regional security. 

As the Indo-Pacific continues to emerge as the central theater of global strategic competition, it’s crucial to recognize the balance of power is not about sheer numbers or brute force. Instead, it’s about strategy — specifically, how to allocate naval assets to control or deny control over key maritime areas. The JMSDF and the RAN, through their carefully calibrated denial strategies, play a vital role in preserving peace and stability in this increasingly contested region. Their actions remind that in the Indo-Pacific, it is not armies but navies that hold the key to the balance of power.  

This article originally was published by the Australian Institute of International Affairs in August 2024. It has been edited to fit FORUM’s format.