Exposing Coercion

FORUM Staff

China has shown clear intent through its actions in the South China Sea: to control nearly 90% of the economically vital waters, including maritime territory in the Bruneian, Indonesian, Malaysian, Philippine and Vietnamese exclusive economic zones (EEZ). Over decades, however, China has sought to secure its illegitimate claims with lawfare activity conducted in relative obscurity. 

Examples include Beijing’s deployment of maritime militia, coast guard and survey vessels to swarm other nations’ outposts, ram and fire water cannons at military and humanitarian patrols, block oil and gas exploration and drilling, and interfere with freedom of navigation in international waters.  

The coercion has usually been invisible to most of the world, Ray Powell, a retired United States Air Force colonel and director of the SeaLight maritime transparency group at Stanford University in California, told FORUM. It occurred in distant waters where no public or media scrutiny existed. Governments unwilling to publicly clash with a well-armed military and major trading partner remained silent or responded behind closed doors. For years, China has escalated its aggressive tactics to strengthen positions in the South China Sea, including in the internationally recognized waters of its neighbors, but relied on coercive assaults rather than conventional military force. Beijing’s aim is maritime domination without international condemnation or consequence.

The Philippines “completely upended China’s South China Sea strategy,” Powell said. 

Targeting opacity, deniability

Manila already had scored one victory when an international tribunal ruled in 2016 that China’s vast claims on the South China Sea were invalid. While Beijing defied the court and continues pressing its territorial ambitions, the decision supported Philippine sovereignty and solidified the case that Manila has international law on its side. 

“Fast-forward to 2023, and we find ourselves gazing in wonder at a second great Philippine innovation,” Powell and U.S. Air Force Capt. Benjamin Goirigolzarri wrote for SeaLight. “This time Manila’s target is the … opacity and deniability in which China has so relentlessly pressed its advantage, and its chief weapon is photography, applied purposefully, generously and consistently over time.” 

In the first salvo of what would become a campaign of assertive transparency, the Philippines released photographs of a China Coast Guard ship using a military-grade laser that temporarily blinded crew members on a Philippine Coast Guard vessel. The Philippine crew was on a mission to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre, the Navy ship that serves as a military outpost at Second Thomas Shoal — less than 200 nautical miles from the Philippine island of Palawan and well within Manila’s EEZ. 

The Philippines has continued to expose Beijing’s aggression, publicly sharing a stream of images and videos showing maritime militia boats swarming Philippine territory; coast guard ships blocking, ramming and firing water cannons at Philippine vessels; a barrier installed to block Philippine fishers from a lagoon inside the country’s EEZ; and more. 

‘Outright unlawful’

Maritime scholars have described such action — aggression that does not cross the threshold of war — as elements of China’s gray-zone strategy, Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela said in May 2024 on Powell’s “Why Should We Care about the Indo-Pacific” podcast. “The biggest contribution of the Philippine government in policymaking and also in academics … is that we are calling these illegal actions, outright unlawful,” he said. “This is not a gray-zone activity. This is not a gray-zone strategy. This is a violation of the international law.” 

Exposing China’s actions was risky for Manila, and China responded with increased aggression, Powell said. However, Beijing was also forced to the bargaining table after the world saw its coast guard launch a brutal assault on Philippine personnel at Second Thomas Shoal in June 2024. The resulting agreement saw Manila’s forces resupplying the Sierra Madre without interference or harassment. “China clearly decided that it was in its best interest to sort of deconflict the situation around Second Thomas Shoal,” Powell said. The agreement “at least temporarily succeeded in stabilizing that situation and in a way that was favorable for the Philippines.”

Assertive transparency is only one of the measures Manila has employed under the tense circumstances, he added. The objective for any state enduring China’s aggression is to deter and defeat the coercive activities. Powell and other experts say the Philippines has made strides toward that end by rallying national resilience and strengthening international support. 

Awareness and engagement

With television, newspapers and social media providing firsthand accounts and dramatic images, events in the South China Sea seized the attention of the Philippine people. Before the nation went public with the information, many Filipinos did not understand the harassment their fishers or Coast Guard personnel faced, Tarriela said. He called public awareness the most positive effect of the transparency campaign. 

Powell said that awareness empowered decision-makers. “When the public is engaged, that means its legislators are engaged and want to do things that improve the Philippines’ position, such as increasing budgets for maritime services like the Coast Guard and Navy,” he said. The Philippines plans to add five 97-meter patrol vessels to its Coast Guard fleet by 2028 and is considering acquiring multirole fighter jets and midrange missile systems. “All of those things are positive developments for the Philippines’ security situation, which come as a result of engaging and helping the public to understand why building maritime capacity is important,” Powell said. “Those things don’t happen in a democracy unless the public is engaged.” 

Multinational security cooperation

Manila also has gained expanded and deeper partnerships. Nations are backing the Philippines in the South China Sea, including Australia, Japan and longtime treaty ally the U.S. The Group of Seven leading industrial nations — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the U.S. — have repeatedly expressed support for the Philippines and stated that there is “no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea.” 

Meanwhile, Allies and Partners are making commitments to Manila’s security. The U.S. in 2024 pledged an unprecedented $500 million for the Philippines’ military and Coast Guard modernization. Japan is providing a low-interest loan of more than $400 million for the five new patrol boats, and the nations have agreed to allow their respective forces to deploy to each other’s territory for exercises, training and humanitarian relief missions. South Korea pledged to help modernize the Philippine military and strengthen Coast Guard cooperation as the countries elevated ties to a strategic partnership. Canada provided satellite tracking technology that allows the Philippines to detect “dark” vessels — those that turn off legally required automatic identification systems — in its territorial waters. Vietnam held its first Coast Guard exercise with Manila. The Philippines also has increased joint maritime patrols in the South China Sea, including with Australia, Canada, Japan and the U.S. “The Philippines is, because of its public stance on the South China Sea, generating lots of interest among like-minded nations, even including nations like India and Vietnam who want to deepen defense ties,” Powell said. 

Such multinational cooperation supports deterrence by building partner capabilities, Lawrence Walzer, a retired U.S. Marine Corps officer and faculty member at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, told FORUM. When Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv’s security partners had not emphasized the support they would offer, and the world did not anticipate Ukraine’s resolve and tenacity, he added. “If Russia had known, would they have invaded? It’s hypothetical but you could certainly argue that it would’ve given them great pause if they saw what was coming.” 

Assertive transparency also helped reveal the regional nature of China’s aggression and prompted a “latticework of alliances,” including among Australia, Japan and Taiwan, Powell said. Countries now recognize that China’s coercive tactics cross borders and extend to all domains. Aggressive air intercepts aim to exert control over areas Beijing claims. Cyberattacks and manipulated information campaigns seek to weaken national resilience in competing countries. Economic coercion attempts to force nations to craft policies favorable to China. “I think the Philippines has really done the region a service by bringing all of this out in the open so that they can start to come up with more of a regional approach,” Powell said.

All-domain utility

Exposing coercive activities has helped deter China’s murky maneuvers. The U.S. Defense Department in 2023 released photographs and video of China’s aggressive and illegal air intercepts in the Indo-Pacific, in addition to reestablishing talks with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Together, the actions led to what U.S. officials called a significant decrease in the PLA’s risky intercepts against U.S. pilots. Powell said the U.S. and its Allies and Partners should consider releasing consistent, immediate information about such behavior to build resilience and deter China. 

Assertive transparency also could be used in the cyber domain, where government-linked hackers in China — as well as in Iran, North Korea and Russia — increasingly target foreign lawmakers, businesses and voters. The message is harder to illustrate, but not impossible, Powell argues: “There are ways, especially using graphics … to sort of bring that message home to people who are potentially affected by cyber aggression so that people can really come to terms with the fact that China’s campaign is against not just the Philippines, but against its potential adversaries globally.” 

Challenges to such transparency are inevitable. Government and military institutions may hesitate to release information quickly because of security concerns, which makes the Philippines’ success even more remarkable, Powell said. Nations also may be unwilling to accept the increased risk from exposing belligerence. In the case of the China’s strategy, however, avoiding a response will not deter the actions, Powell said. “You can sort of lay low and hope that the wave passes over you, but the wave is coming regardless,” he added. “All you’re doing by sort of downplaying the incidents is allowing China to consolidate gains in the darkness instead of being open, instead of having to conduct its aggressions in the light of day.”