Corruption may postpone CCP’s military modernization, report says

FORUM Staff

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping’s crackdown on military corruption in the past 18 months could hinder his military modernization goals for 2027 and beyond, according to the China Military Power Report released by the United States Defense Department in December 2024.

The annual report provides the U.S. Congress an analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military capabilities, strategies and goals. The 2024 report highlights significant developments and challenges within the CCP’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), focusing on corruption, modernization and its growing nuclear arsenal.

Corruption within the PLA remains a critical issue, the 166-page report said, with misconduct touching every service in the military. Xi made rooting out corruption a priority on taking office in 2012 and in the past year has used corruption-related investigations to remove at least 15 high-ranking military officers and defense industry executives from their posts.

The anti-corruption campaign reflects serious concerns about the PLA and its ability to meet the capabilities development milestones set by Xi, the report said.

“I think there are questions about the overall effect on the PLA and the whole way in which corruption reverberates through the entire system and what that means,” Ely Ratner, U.S. assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said after the report’s release.

Xi aims to integrate and accelerate modernization by 2027, complete the transformation by 2035 and have the PLA become a “world-class military” by 2049.

The report details the PRC’s nuclear weapons buildup, which surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024 and is expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030, the report said. The U.S. maintains more than 3,700 operational warheads.

The PLA has expanded to a nuclear triad, with ballistic missile submarines, nuclear-capable bombers and precision strike-capable missiles, and has about 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles, the report said.

It notes that “several leaders investigated or removed for corruption oversaw equipment development projects related to modernizing the PRC’s ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles.”

Xi and other leading military officials “probably will increase scrutiny of PLA capabilities testing and political loyalty in the force,” according to the report.

Defense analysts predict “corruption probes could lead to more scrutiny on defense appointments and procurement, as well as intensified ideological training, potentially slowing Xi’s military modernization efforts,” according to The New York Times newspaper.

Then-U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. John C. Aquilino told the U.S. Congress in March 2024 that Xi wanted to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. Beijing claims the self-governed island as its territory and threatens to annex it by force.

“The substantial problems they have with corruption that have yet to be resolved certainly could slow them down on the path toward the 2027 capabilities development milestone and beyond,” a U.S. intelligence official said, according to The New York Times.

The report highlights other deficiencies in the CCP’s military, including in the readiness and capabilities of commanders. It describes “the five incapables,” or areas where PLA officers might improve, including evaluating situations, understanding higher authorities’ intent, making operational decisions, deploying forces and managing unexpected situations.

A lack of combat experience is cited as contributing to these deficiencies. “From the PRC point of view, it means that the experience that they do have is coming from the overseas operations, from the exercises that they conduct at home — not from any sort of real-world experience with combat operations,” said Michael Chase, U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary for China, Mongolia and Taiwan.

The PLA also is behind schedule to meet milestones in urban warfare and long-distance logistics, the report said.

The CCP’s military modernization efforts are influenced by its relationships with allies. The report notes the CCP’s support to Russia for its unprovoked war against Ukraine, and military cooperation and exercises. As Russia becomes more dependent on the PRC, Xi is likely to exert more leverage to extract greater cooperation in areas such as the Arctic, where Russia has been historically reluctant to cooperate, Chase said.

The PRC’s relations with Iran, Iranian proxy groups and North Korea also should demand scrutiny, Ratner said. The PRC’s support for Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine “is just one of the ways in which the PRC’s anti-Western, anti-American orientation has been destabilizing, not only in Europe but in other theaters throughout the world,” he said.

The report also highlights the PRC’s activities in the Middle East, where it continues to support Iran and its proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. The Houthis have established a supply chain into the PRC for drones and missiles used to attack international shipping, with a “bargain” between the Houthis and Beijing ensuring continued support in exchange for not attacking PRC shipping, Chase said.

The report estimates the PRC’s public defense budget at $220 billion for 2023, with investments heavily focused in capabilities for Taiwan contingencies, the East China and South China seas, and power projection capabilities, in addition to increasing nuclear capabilities.