Forging Deterrence

Sentry

Next-generation defense systems will be faster, more accurate and more powerful to better protect the United States and its Allies and Partners from emerging threats. As the U.S. military and its partners modernize their systems, new technology offers advanced capabilities for detecting and defending against threats to the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere. Russia and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) increasingly seek to disrupt U.S. and ally defense systems and the CCP continues to field its own systems. North Korea and Iran are also expanding their arsenals and their nuclear capabilities.

“For U.S. forces and U.S. Allies and Partners around the world, in this era of missile-centric warfare, active missile defenses have become an essential element of a credible military force posture,” John D. Hill, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for space and missile defense policy, told the U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee in December 2023. “In the most basic sense, IAMD [integrated air and missile defense] encompasses diverse sensors and shooters and the command and control systems that network them together to give battlefield commanders the optimal selection of interceptors to defend against a given threat. But in a broader sense, IAMD must also be integrated with other elements of military posture, including strike capabilities that can hold an adversary’s critical military capabilities at risk.” 

New threats, new technologies

The U.S. and its Allies and Partners are advancing defense and warning programs — across domains including space — to meet growing security challenges and ensure global stability. Future missile defense systems, for example, will incorporate enhanced technology to detect, track and intercept weapons. Evolving defense systems include:

Sensor architecture is advancing to meet threats from longer-range hypersonic weapons. “We’re at an inflection point with missile defense, and that starts with sensors,” Masao Dahlgren, a fellow at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project, said in a December 2023 panel discussion. “Sensors are the first link to the missile defense kill chain. And you design every other requirement for missile defense around them.” For example, the hypersonic and ballistic tracking space sensor (HBTSS) incorporates multiwavelength optical sensors and can detect and track hypersonic weapons, ballistic missiles and threats in a high-clutter environment, better enabling forces to intercept. In February 2024, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency and the U.S. Space Force’s Space Development Agency launched six satellites into low Earth orbit, two of which are equipped with HBTSS prototypes. The U.S. is also developing its network of infrared sensors, which can detect the hot plume of a rocket as it launches, giving U.S. and allied forces time to respond. The sensors can detect the missile type, launch origin and target location from tens of thousands of kilometers above Earth thanks to a constellation of satellites in geosynchronous orbit (matching Earth’s rotation to stay focused on a specific location) and highly elliptical orbit (providing high latitude and polar coverage). Future satellites will be deployed to low and middle Earth orbits, providing additional layers of surveillance.

Next-generation long-range standoff missiles, which can strike targets deep within enemy territory, will incorporate new technologies to improve guidance and navigation, range, and stealth and survivability. The U.S. Air Force is developing a nuclear-capable, air-to-ground cruise missile designed to penetrate and survive integrated air defense systems. The AGM-181 also can be integrated with the B-52H Stratofortress and B-21 bombers, armed with a low-to-intermediate yield, two-stage thermonuclear warhead. The missile, with a range exceeding 2,500 kilometers, is scheduled to enter service by 2030. The U.S. Navy, meanwhile, is developing a hypersonic air-launched offensive (HALO) anti-ship missile that can travel at more than 6,000 kilometers per hour, according to The Defense Post, a Washington, D.C.-based online publication. HALO will be compatible with the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, a supersonic, twin-engine, carrier capable, multirole fighter aircraft, and is expected to be operational by 2028. 

The MGM-35 Sentinel land-based intercontinental ballistic missile is being developed as part of a program to modernize 400 missiles, 45 silos and more than 600 facilities in the U.S. The Sentinel program, which is expected to be viable through 2075, also includes a secure and robust command, control and communications capability, hardened facilities, and thousands of kilometers of fiberoptic networks. Sentinel is synchronized with Minuteman III decommissioning to avoid operational shortfalls. Construction began in March 2024 on a new weapons generation facility at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana.

Directed energy (DE) weapons, including lasers, high-power radio frequency or microwave devices, and particle beam technology, use electromagnetic energy to deny, degrade, destroy or deceive an adversary — without the need to transport ammunition. DE also is used in target identification, counterintelligence search and reconnaissance, and electronic warfare, including disrupting or jamming signals and disabling or destroying targets.  Commercial sector innovations are expected to drive DE development, including smaller, more efficient and lower-cost systems. Systems in development and testing largely are for counter-drone operations, and military leaders are particularly interested in high-power microwave weapons that would be more effective than a laser at countering drone swarms. “The bigger concern is if you start talking about swarms, so we need to continue to invest in things like high-powered microwave to be able to counter a drone swarm that is coming at you,” U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla told lawmakers in March 2024. “You have to have layered defense.”

The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) has incorporated artificial intelligence (AI) into systems for more than 60 years. As AI becomes increasingly sophisticated, defense leaders are looking for more ways the technology, including machine learning and autonomous systems, can facilitate faster and better decisions in the field. “New technologies such as AI and unmanned systems have changed the way that militaries provide security and try to deter war … and could ultimately decide who prevails in a time of war,” U.S. Navy Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, deputy commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), told defense and security experts at the March 2024 “AI in the Era of Strategic Competition” conference in Tampa, Florida. “At CENTCOM, we’ve been able to use AI in the maritime domain for pattern detection in order to identify threats at a faster rate,” he said. “We want to get ahead of nefarious acts and AI … has proven itself to be very effective.” AI is a key element of the Space Based Infrared System, which incorporates sensors to counter attacks, for example, on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. “Being able to provide missile warning, to say, ‘there’s a missile inbound and here’s the location where it came from, and here’s where it’s headed,’ is valuable information to keep people safe,” Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, U.S. Space Force chief of space operations, told The Wall Street Journal newspaper in February 2024. While AI can provide rapid data for decision-making, humans will still retain control of systems, Cooper noted. “We’re able to move at speeds that were previously unimaginable,” he said.

Building and strengthening partnerships

In a world facing multiple security threats, the U.S. is strengthening ties with Allies and Partners and building new coalitions, particularly in data sharing and AI. 

“Realizing the full promise of data, analytics and AI is not the exclusive responsibility of a single organization or program,” the DOD’s AI adoption strategy states. “It requires a concerted effort by every unit, leader, servicemember and our Partners and Allies across the globe.”   

In a recent experiment dubbed Project Convergence, personnel from Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom joined U.S. joint forces to compile intelligence sharing and decision making to choose the best weapons for countering threats. The exercise was part of the Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control, the DOD’s strategy to collect and interpret data at unprecedented speed. The goal is to eliminate organizational barriers to the flow of information and feedback among services and allied nations, which can lead to duplicated efforts and wasted assets. 

Conducted over four weeks in February and March 2024, Project Convergence boasted impressive results: Personnel identified targets in a fraction of the usual time — sometimes in seconds. “I think there’s a real opportunity with the Project Convergence series and our war-gaming series to make sure we’re not just sharing with our partners but genuinely learning,” Gen. James E. Rainey, commander of the U.S. Army Futures Command, said at the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) Global Force Symposium & Exposition in Huntsville, Alabama, in March 2024. “Some of the best thinking is happening in places that are not the United States … I think we have a moral responsibility to learn and observe everything we can.”

The U.S. is also working with multiple Indo-Pacific partners to counter increasing regional threats. DOD has helped  Japan acquire U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, E-2D airborne early warning aircraft, the KC-46 refueling tanker, the Global Hawk uncrewed aerial system and the Marine Vertical  22 tilt-rotor aircraft, as well as the Air Intercept Missile 120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile system, the UGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missile system and the SM-3 Block IIA ballistic missile defense interceptor. Japan and South Korea have added the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system to their domestically manufactured capabilities. Japan, South Korea and the U.S. in 2023 also announced activation of a real-time data-sharing mechanism to monitor North Korean missile launches and established a multiyear, trilateral military exercise plan to enhance capabilities and coordination.

The Philippines also has increased cooperation with Allies and Partners, including the U.S. and Vietnam, in response to the Chinese coast guard’s continued harassment of Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) vessels within Manila’s exclusive economic zone. AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. in January 2024 announced upgrades to the nation’s South China Sea military outposts to counter the increased threats. The U.S., which signed a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines more than 70 years ago, pledged support and will provide $120 million in grants annually for Manila’s defense forces, The Washington Post newspaper reported. 

“The United States is the exact opposite of China. We have something like 35 legal allies,” Mac Carey, founder and CEO of the Lexington Institute, a public policy think tank, said at the AUSA symposium. “China has one ally, and it’s North Korea, and it’s more of a client state than it is an ally.”  

Sentry magazine is produced by the U.S. Strategic Command.