Palau’s upcoming election triggers concern over PRC manipulated information

Jessica Caterson

Palau, a Blue Pacific nation of 22,000 people, will hold its presidential election in November 2024. It comes amid increasing influence attempts by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and a potential manipulated information campaign aimed at swaying results, a frequent strategy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Palau, in conjunction with Taiwan and the United States, began media literacy training a year before the election to help journalists and others recognize manipulated information.

Beginning in 2013, CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping intensified Beijing’s efforts to shape the global information environment, wanting media worldwide to “tell China’s story well,” according to the U.S. State Department. Propaganda, manipulated information and censorship are among the CCP’s cognitive warfare tools, according to an October 2023 commentary in Defense One, a Washington, D.C.-based publication. Beijing relies on state-controlled media, PRC diplomats and influence within local media outlets to spread its narrative, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said in 2023.

The CCP’s attempts to influence elections elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific reveal clues about its potential tactics in Palau. Before Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2024, for example, the CCP used local proxies, media outlets, social media accounts and artificial intelligence to promote its propaganda. Beijing claims the self-governed island as its territory and threatens to annex it by force.

While CCP state-run media had previously assisted or initiated information manipulation campaigns, during Taiwan’s election they amplified narratives from local opinion leaders “that aligned with CCP propaganda narratives rather than directly initiating the propaganda themselves,” according to a June 2024 commentary published by the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

There also is the potential for direct media interference and manipulated information campaigns, as seen in the Philippines. There, analysts contend, the “PRC has hijacked major Filipino media outlets … which they argue now effectively act as (plausibly deniable) mouthpieces for the CCP party line,” according to a May 2023 analysis published by the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

The PRC’s attempts to expand its influence in the Pacific region could expose Palau and other island nations to exploitation of their natural resources, such as through illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. International law grants coastal states exclusive rights over the use and benefit of such resources within their exclusive economic zones, which extend 200 nautical miles from the coast. IUU fishing violates those sovereign rights and threatens food security and economic stability globally. Chinese-flagged vessels are the leading perpetrators of IUU fishing, according to Poseidon Aquatic Resource Management and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.

In mid-August 2024, Taiwan condemned the PRC for bullying Palau over its diplomatic ties with Taipei. Beijing was accused of “weaponizing tourism” by discouraging travel to Palau as a way to coerce and intimidate the nation economically.

“We have a relationship with Taiwan … China has openly told us (that) is illegal and we should not recognize Taiwan,” Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr. said, according to the Focus Taiwan newspaper. “We need economic development, but at the same time we have values, we have partnerships, and the relationship we have with Taiwan, we treasure.”

To counter potential CCP election interference, analysts say targeted training for media professionals can bolster resilience and foster responsible journalism. In November 2023, for example, the Global Cooperation and Training Framework, which was established by Taiwan and the U.S., staged its first workshop in Palau on strengthening media literacy and recognizing manipulated information. The event, which featured journalists and academics, demonstrated the importance of bolstering media literacy through public-private partnerships and international cooperation, according to Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Similar initiatives flourishing throughout the Indo-Pacific serve as models for countering manipulated information. They include encouraging civil society groups to track and counter propaganda and preparing students to resist false narratives.

With continuing support from Indo-Pacific Allies and Partners, and by studying the experiences and strategies of Taiwan and other democracies, Palau can enhance its resilience and protect its information environment.

Jessica Caterson is a master’s degree candidate at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.