Beijing’s support of Myanmar’s junta fuels resentment, resistance

Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) backing of Myanmar’s brutal, highly unpopular and illegitimate military junta further exposes Beijing’s hypocrisy and heavy-handed interference in the region. In mid-August 2024, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met with the head of Myanmar’s junta and reiterated the PRC’s support for its efforts “in implementing the five-point roadmap for ensuring peace and stability of the State,” The Diplomat magazine reported.

Since the junta seized power from the democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup, the PRC has favored the military regime despite claiming to be upholding a policy of noninterference. In practice, the PRC has been playing both sides, maintaining relations with resistance groups and reportedly providing them with weapons including drones and short-range missiles. The PRC seeks to insinuate itself as the dominant outside power in Myanmar.

In mid-September, however, the PRC moved politically against a key resistance group to which it had funneled weapons and other support. Some resistance factions likely are becoming too powerful for the PRC and pose a threat to its control of the border region with Myanmar, analysts contend.

By tipping the scales in favor of a regime despised by most of Myanmar’s people, the PRC is alienating itself from the population it seeks to influence. Moreover, the PRC’s approach does not bode well for its long-term relationship with Myanmar, as it risks inflaming deep-seated resentments within the country.

Myanmar’s people have long harbored negative views of the Chinese government due to its extractive policies on natural resources, which have damaged the environment, livelihoods and local culture.

Under intense pressure from the PRC, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) announced recently that it would halt its siege in northern Myanmar and not attempt to extend its territory or attack the cities of Mandalay or Taunggyi, the capital of Shan State, according to The Irrawaddy, a Myanmar-based news website.

The MNDAA also said it would not seek to create a breakaway state and no longer would collaborate politically or militarily with the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) or any international organization that opposes the PRC, The Irrawaddy reported. The NUG was established by democratically elected lawmakers who evaded capture during the military coup.

The PRC’s coercion of groups such as the MNDAA is emblematic of its broader strategy to safeguard its interests in the country and region, even if it means trampling upon the wishes of Myanmar’s people. Tactics such as blocking trade and border crossings and tightening economic screws in the Kokang region, where the MNDAA is based, highlight the PRC’s willingness to impose hardship on local populations to secure political and economic dominance.

Despite the PRC’s efforts to undermine the resistance forces, the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027, named for its launch date of October 27, 2023, has provided crucial momentum against the junta, weakening its forces to an unprecedented degree in recent months, according to analysts. The MNDAA is among the strongest of the alliance’s ethnic armed groups.

The second wave of Operation 1027, which began in June 2024, demonstrates the resilience of Myanmar’s resistance coalition forces and their ability to adapt their fight for freedom even when under pressure from a powerful neighbor.

For Myanmar’s resistance coalition forces, the key to countering the PRC’s bullying lies in solidarity and collaboration. The Three Brotherhood Alliance and others have shown that coordinated efforts can achieve meaningful victories against the junta.

The PRC’s backing of the military regime may have temporarily forced the MNDAA’s hand, but it does not dictate the course of the resistance. Ultimately, the PRC’s strategy of propping up a hated regime and coercing local armed resistance groups into submission will not end well for Beijing.

The PRC has aligned itself with the losing side, as the military junta will likely eventually collapse because of its internal dysfunction rooted in rampant corruption and the demoralization of its troops. By supporting and aiding the regime, the PRC is complicit in the junta’s atrocities and war crimes.

The sovereignty and future of Myanmar must be shaped by its own people, not dictated by an outside power seeking to exploit its resources and maintain regional control.

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Miemie Winn Byrd is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii.