The Coming Storm

MAJ. AFUA O. BOAHEMA-LEE/U.S. ARMY  |  Photos by AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Southeast Asia has recorded rising average temperatures since 1960. With climate change effects becoming more pronounced over the last decade, it is now considered one of humanity’s most crucial challenges. Based on data collected over the past two decades, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) included Thailand and Vietnam among countries severely affected by climbing temperatures.

Climate Change in Thailand

Climate change is a significant security concern for Thailand, which, like many other Southeast Asian countries, struggles with the challenges it poses. One example was the 2011 flooding, which is among the most devastating natural disasters in Thailand’s history.

The flooding caused widespread damage to infrastructure, agriculture and livelihoods, highlighting the urgent need for greater efforts to address climate change impacts. Heavy monsoon rains that began in July 2011 and continued for months affected 65 of Thailand’s 77 provinces and caused more than 800 deaths, with damage estimated at $46.5 billion. The disaster also propelled security challenges such as population displacement, societal unrest and conflicts over natural resources.

The Mekong River is a matter of concern that deserves attention. It is one of Asia’s longest rivers, flowing through six countries: the People’s Republic of China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. It is the region’s lifeblood, providing water for drinking, irrigation and transportation, as well as supporting millions of people who depend on its resources for survival. The Mekong River Basin is experiencing severe climate change effects including floods, droughts and rising temperatures, as well as ecological pressures from urbanization, coastal erosion and deforestation.

Thailand is in the low-elevation coastal zone of the Asian continent, known for susceptibility to extreme weather. Notable climate change effects experienced by Thailand’s citizens include food shortages, water quality issues, plant and animal extinction, and famine. The Mekong River’s importance to Thailand highlights the need for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. It is crucial for Thailand to monitor and manage the river’s resources, protect its ecosystems, and collaborate with neighboring countries in the Mekong River Basin to address shared challenges, which include health security. Research suggests that flooding is a significant environmental factor associated with the transmission of leptospirosis, a potentially deadly bacterial disease. Global warming also can be a catalyst for pandemics.

Frequent and severe droughts and floods are at the root of several economic security issues in Thailand, especially among farming communities. Impacts on crop yields and agricultural production have resulted in lower income for farmers and higher food prices for consumers. Moreover, climate change has resulted in water and food insecurities in the region. Researchers also predict a significant decline in the numbers of plants, mammals and birds by 2070.

Climate Change in Vietnam

Climate change poses substantial security challenges in Vietnam, particularly in coastal areas where most people live. The country, located in a tropical zone of the Northern Hemisphere, has already experienced floods, droughts and heat waves, which have damaged infrastructure, agriculture and human health. The IMF reported that the country is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, and increased frequency and intensity of storms and typhoons.

For example, in 2017, Typhoon Damrey swept across central Vietnam, killing over 100 people and causing more than $1 billion in damage. Such consequences can result in security vulnerabilities including displacement, societal instability and fighting over natural resources. It is projected that by 2050, Earth’s average temperature will increase by up to 2 degrees Celsius, causing more frequent and severe droughts and rainfall. Sea levels could rise by about 1 meter, which would significantly affect low-lying coastal regions that lack adaptation measures.

Almost half of the Mekong Delta region, which is crucial for food security and Vietnam’s economy, will be particularly vulnerable to these changes, which could have life-altering consequences. According to the Global Climate Index, Vietnam is among the countries most severely affected by climate change.

Despite ongoing mitigation, climate change is a significant threat to Vietnam’s security. One major concern is the risk to agriculture, which could jeopardize domestic and global food security. Agriculture is a critical sector of Vietnam’s economy, and the nation plays a significant role in the global food market by exporting large quantities of rice, seafood and coffee. Climate change is also a main factor behind health challenges in Vietnam. Rising sea levels and extreme weather have increased the risk of climate-related diseases. Meanwhile, an intensifying climate has forced many Vietnamese to migrate.

Policies on Climate Change

The Thai and Vietnamese governments have enacted legislation to combat climate change consequences. Thailand also has made international pledges to help manage local effects. As part of the 2015 United Nations Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit the rise in global average temperature, Thailand pledged to reduce greenhouse gases by at least 30% by 2030. Thailand released its Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act and a National Master Plan on climate change in 2007, mainly identifying and highlighting critical areas for intervention. The country recently adopted a National Adaptation Plan that aims to achieve sustainability within the public health, water resource management, agriculture, food security and natural resource management sectors. Thailand’s Climate Change Master Plan (CCMP) 2015-2050 is the highest-level policy document guiding the national climate response. The CCMP seeks to cut greenhouse gas emissions, increase energy efficiency and bolster support for renewable energy sources. The plan includes measures to improve water management and lessen the country’s susceptibility to floods.

The private sector, especially nongovernmental organizations (NGO), also manages climate change effects. NGOs have been at the forefront of addressing climate change in Thailand. The Thai Climate Justice Working Group raises public awareness regarding climate change, including on vulnerable communities, and advocates for policies and actions that promote climate justice nationally and regionally. The group focuses on issues such as sustainable energy, climate finance and climate adaptation, and is helping the government transition to a low-carbon society.

The Thailand Environmental Institute, another NGO, works with the private sector, local communities and the government to formulate directives that encourage environmental progress. For years, the institute has researched climate change and provided key policy recommendations.

Even with such efforts, significant international support is necessary to develop adaptive capacity and resilience to the effects of climate change on security. This includes assistance in creating and executing adaptation strategies, expanding access to funding, and developing climate risk management expertise. 

Adverse climate conditions can potentially spark violence and political instability. Therefore, addressing climate change is a priority for militaries. In addition to protecting Thailand’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Thai military assists citizens affected by droughts and floods. Military personnel provide transportation, food and security. Because climate change also affects defense operations, Thailand’s military has implemented strategies to address related national security threats.

Vietnamese leaders also consider climate change a priority. In conjunction with private sector organizations, the government has implemented policies and strategies to help achieve a sustainable future. To make communities and infrastructure more resilient, the government created the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, with an overarching goal of reducing the country’s carbon footprint. It involves initiatives to enhance water management, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase alternative energy use.

The country’s climate change policy aims for net-zero emissions by 2050. Vietnam also passed a 2022 law introducing carbon taxes to help reduce emissions. In addition, the country joined the Just Energy Transition Partnership to support Vietnam’s ambitious 2050 goal and its transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. In May 2023, Vietnam reached a milestone by approving the eighth National Power Development Plan (PDP-8), highlighting its dedication to sustainable development and environmentally friendly progress while achieving economywide net-zero emissions. The United States Agency for International Development assisted Vietnam throughout the development of PDP-8 and continues to support the plan’s implementation.

The Vietnamese government also has involved NGOs in the battle against climate change. The Climate Change Working Group Vietnam has strived for years to lessen climate vulnerability among low-income populations. The organization encourages community development and provides financial and environmental support to citizens.

Another Vietnamese NGO, the Center for Environment and Community Research, promotes gender equity and climate change adaptation. Its programs include water pollution control and plastic waste reduction. The objectives of these and other NGOs include coordination, policy dialogue, adaptation, mitigation, capacity building and advocacy.

Comparative Analysis

Climate change and the resulting extreme weather have yielded similar economic, political and environmental consequences in Thailand and Vietnam, where sea levels are expected to rise up to 30 centimeters by 2050. That increase will cause erosion, flooding and saltwater intrusion that will affect agriculture, aquaculture and tourism. Both nations have seen climate-related property damage and losses surpassing those in other regions. Failure to address climate change could result in a projected 11% decrease in gross domestic product regionwide by the end of the century.

Both governments, in collaboration with NGOs and military organizations, have developed well-defined policies and plans to combat climate change. However, the nations face different challenges. Thailand is farther south and the hotter temperatures leave it more prone to heat waves and drought. Vietnam is more exposed and prone to storms, floods and typhoons. It is essential also to note that Thailand’s steps to address climate change tend to be less comprehensive than Vietnam’s. Despite its climate change management goals, the country has been slow to implement measures.

Like Thailand’s Armed Forces, the Vietnamese military is involved in climate change response, particularly disaster relief and recovery.

The U.S. and European nations can play vital roles assisting Thailand and Vietnam with climate change challenges nationally and regionally. The U.S., for example, provides economic and educational advocacy, and environmental support for climate change management.

Government, Military and NGO Measures

Climate change will affect the interventions and security offered by governments, militaries and NGOs, with demand for humanitarian aid and disaster relief projected to rise. With Thailand and Vietnam particularly vulnerable, it’s crucial that governments, militaries and NGOs are prepared to assist affected communities.

Water and land resources may become scarcer and therefore more valuable, which could lead to conflict among countries and groups, especially where such resources already are limited. To lessen the risk of conflict and encourage equitable resource distribution, governments, militaries and NGOs must collaborate to make communities more resilient and better prepared to manage the effects of global warming.

Prospects for Cooperation

Thailand, Vietnam and the U.S. together can combat climate change. Collaboration can advance eco-friendly energy sources and cut greenhouse gas emissions. As the world’s foremost innovator in renewable energy technologies, the U.S. is positioned to offer expertise and other assistance to Thailand and Vietnam as they switch to environmentally sustainable energy.

A global leader in agricultural technology, the U.S. also is positioned to assist Thailand and Vietnam in boosting agricultural productivity and promoting sustainable practices while strengthening their ability to withstand floods, droughts and other disasters.

Furthermore, such partnerships can foster regional stability by promoting equitable distribution of resources, particularly water and land. By working together, nations can lessen the likelihood of conflict arising from resource scarcity. Through knowledge sharing, cooperation and implementation of sustainable practices, Thailand, the U.S. and Vietnam aspire to create a framework that ensures the responsible use and fair allocation of vital resources. In this regard, collaborative efforts among the three nations would signify a transformative approach to enhancing agricultural resilience and regional stability.

Such collaboration should focus on developing adaptive capacity, resilience and climate risk management, as well as expanding access to climate funding. Military involvement in addressing climate change is essential, considering the potential security implications.

Climate change presents significant challenges to Thailand and Vietnam, necessitating concerted efforts from governments, NGOs and international partners. The impacts of climate change go beyond environmental concerns and have far-reaching implications for humanity. It is imperative to prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies to ensure the well-being and security of people in both countries and across the global community.  

This article originally appeared in Volume 15, Issue 1, 2023, of Liaison magazine, a publication of the Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance, based in Hawaii. It has been edited to fit FORUM’s format.