Conflicts - TensionsNortheast Asia

Taiwan embraces status quo for cross-strait peace

FORUM Staff

Taiwan’s democracy is helping ensure stability in the Taiwan Strait, throughout the Indo-Pacific and across the globe. All three presidential candidates in the self-governed island’s January 2024 election vowed to maintain the cross-strait status quo.

“Despite increased military and economic challenges, my top priorities remain pragmatism and consistency,” President-elect Lai Ching-te wrote in The Wall Street Journal newspaper during his campaign, emphasizing that the status quo is in the best interests of Taiwan and the international community.

Taiwan F-16 fighter jet pilots train over the Penghu Islands.
VIDEO CREDIT: TAIWAN MILITARY NEWS AGENCY

Taipei’s mainstream political stance reinforces the will of Taiwan’s voting public to preserve peace even as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which claims Taiwan and threatens to annex the island by force, ramps up economic and military coercion.

Beijing’s gray-zone tactics include deploying military aircraft, warships and paramilitary patrols near Taiwan, imposing trade measures aimed at harming the island’s financial system, and conducting information manipulation campaigns and cyberattacks, all of which intensified during election season.

The 180-kilometer-wide Taiwan Strait that separates the PRC from Taiwan is crucial to global commerce.

Conflict in Taiwan would result in heavy losses of life, decimate regional economies and cost the world an estimated 10% of its gross domestic product, researchers say. Taipei’s approach to avoiding that outcome dovetails with that of global partners. Neighbors including Japan, the Philippines and South Korea have repeatedly called for maintaining the status quo. The United States opposes any unilateral change in the Taiwan Strait as part of its “One China” policy, which has helped preserve regional stability for more than 40 years. Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. agreed to provide Taiwan with the assets and services needed to maintain its self-defense.

Organizations such as the European Union have also emphasized the importance of preserving cross-strait peace and stability.

Meanwhile, Lai has pledged to continue strengthening Taiwan’s deterrence against PRC hostilities, calling self-defense the bedrock of the island’s security. The past eight years saw Taipei increase defense budgets, reform conscription and add military capabilities, he wrote in The Wall Street Journal.

“I will seek greater cooperation with partners and allies, particularly in training, force restructuring, civil defense and information sharing,” Lai added.

Although some analysts suggest Beijing could opt for a military response to Lai’s election, others point to domestic issues that could make Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping less likely to risk conflict. Xi “has his plate full at home with a softening economy, record youth unemployment and a deep-rooted corruption inside his military,” Ryan Hass, a foreign policy expert, wrote for the Brookings Institution, a U.S.-based think tank.

Lai has repeatedly said he favors reopening dialogue with the PRC to end nearly a decade of Xi’s refusal to communicate with Taiwan’s leaders.

“Our door will always be open to engagement with Beijing under the principles of equality and dignity,” Lai said before his victory, according to The Associated Press. “We are ready and willing to engage … for the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Peace is priceless and war has no winners.”

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