India key to future of BRICS grouping

FORUM Staff

The loosely affiliated group called BRICS, which emerged in the mid-2000s consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and later South Africa, faces mounting challenges as it continues to expand.

In addition to an economic slowdown globally, the organization must confront increasing geopolitical tensions and internal pressures, including coordination issues, disagreements and differing priorities among members, analysts said.

Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined the group in early 2024 after the founding members approved the expansion at their August 2023 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BRICS+, as it is being called, continues as an informal alliance. However, the group could significantly affect international relations if it becomes a legitimate peer to the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, analysts said.

Although the expansion could enhance the group’s stature, “admitting too many new members risks diluting the BRICS group, making it ineffectual if it continues to operate on a consensus basis,” Hung Tran, a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, wrote in an August 2023 article on the New Atlanticist blog.

Observer states Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia also want to become full members. Plus, there are six dialogue partners: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Turkey. Under its then newly elected president, Javier Milei, Argentina withdrew its application to join the group in December 2023, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported. More than 20 other countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS.

Much depends on the path that BRICS takes going forward. To date, the group has not lived up to its billing largely due to ongoing internal divisions, which appear to have persisted throughout the expansion and into 2024, analysts said.

For a start, India and the PRC disagree as to how the organization should proceed, analysts said. India envisions creating more of what it describes as a multipolar global governance system, while the PRC seeks a mechanism to counter the United States and its Allies and Partners. In many ways, India is better positioned to build consensus and promote common interests and shared values within the grouping.

“If the BRICS group follows India’s approach, then it can promote cooperation among developing countries and, on that basis, engage with the G7 to discuss ways to reform the international economic and financial system and deal with global problems such as the impacts of climate change,” wrote Tran, a former executive managing director at the Institute of International Finance and former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund. G7 members include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the U.S.

“This would seem to appeal to many developing countries, which want to reform the current international economic and financial system but do not want to explicitly take sides between the United States and China,” Tran wrote.

“If China prevails, the BRICS group will likely become another venue for anti-U.S. political activism, probably risking its ability to deliver concrete benefits to many developing countries.”

Many analysts fear BRICS could become a puppet organization of the PRC to promote Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions, such as its One Belt, One Road infrastructure scheme and Global Security Initiative, that ultimately will advance PRC interests at the expense of those of many emerging economies. Increasing authoritarianism in the PRC and Russia, and the susceptibility of many BRICS nations to authoritarian rule, have also raised concerns about the group’s direction.

Despite having a much larger total population than the G7, the 10 BRICS+ countries have lower economic output and per capita gross domestic product, according to analysts.

Meanwhile, India and the PRC continue to clash not only on the future of BRICS but also on border issues and economic policy.

Beijing continues to frustrate New Delhi by consistently supporting Pakistan over India on regional issues. In addition to pushing economic and infrastructure projects with Pakistan, the PRC promotes military cooperation with India’s neighbor and supplies Pakistan with armaments. In late April 2024, for example, the PRC launched the first of eight Hangor-class submarines it is developing for Pakistan.

Similarly, Russia, which favors the PRC’s approach to BRICS, continues to supply Pakistan with weapons ranging from small arms to Mi-35M attack helicopters, anti-tank systems and air-defense weapons.

In the coming year, the BRICS 2025 strategy, introduced in 2020, will require renewal. How this plays out may portend whether India can lead the way toward its vision of a multipolar global governance system that boosts emerging economies and gives them greater voice and representation.