PRC greatest threat to Free and Open Indo-Pacific, USINDOPACOM Commander says

FORUM Staff

United States Navy Adm. John Aquilino, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), recently delivered an imperative message to the U.S. Congress: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) will be ready to invade Taiwan in three years.

Unprecedented actions by the increasingly connected regimes in the PRC, Russia and North Korea are challenging international norms and advancing authoritarianism, Aquilino testified before the House of Representatives and Senate armed services committees on March 20-21, 2024. But, he said, “the PRC is the only country that has the capability, capacity and intent to upend the international order” and displace the Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

Even amid slowing economic growth, the PRC continues aggressive investments to expand and modernize its military and continues its coercive gray-zone operations to bully self-governed Taiwan. All indications suggest the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will meet Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping’s directive to prepare for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, Aquilino said, and “the PLA’s actions indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.”

The PRC’s military buildup is “on a scale not seen since World War II,” Aquilino said, pointing to a three-year progression that added more than 400 fighter aircraft and 20 major warships, doubled the inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles, and increased satellites by 50%. Perhaps most concerning, he said, is the rapid growth of the PRC’s inventory of nuclear warheads, which has more than doubled since 2020.

The PRC announced a more than 7% hike in military spending, to $231 billion, in 2024, the third consecutive year that defense allocations will grow by at least that much. Aquilino, however, said Beijing isn’t transparent and that he believes it’s spending more on defense than it acknowledges.

Aquilino’s testimony affirmed the timeline for a potential PRC invasion of Taiwan that his predecessor, Adm. Phil Davidson, presented to Congress in 2021.

The CCP claims Taiwan as its territory and threatens to annex the democratically governed island. Beijing’s coercion has “established a new, more dangerous status quo for PLA activity and posture around Taiwan, normalizing warship patrols around Taiwan and military flights crossing the Taiwan Strait centerline,” Aquilino said.

Aquilino also told Congress that:

• CCP military aggression is increasing the risk of conflict near the Philippines. “It’s a really critical hot spot that could end up in a bad place,” he said. “The fact that they are now fire hosing and ramming Philippine ships attempting to support Philippine Sailors … I’m concerned where it can go.”
• Reports that U.S. troops are deploying to Taiwan’s outlying islands are inaccurate. Although there is a troop presence, Aquilino said, it is not permanent.
• A focus for enhancing deterrence is the robust U.S. network of Allies and Partners, “our most significant asymmetrical advantage in long-term competition.” Aquilino highlighted the recent announcement of the pathway for Australia to acquire conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines under its AUKUS partnership with the United Kingdom and the U.S.; a new phase of Japan, South Korea and U.S. cooperation that established real-time data sharing on North Korean missile launches; the launch of the India-U.S. defense acceleration ecosystem; and a defense cooperation agreement with Papua New Guinea.

“Our alliances, multilateral arrangements, partnerships, friendships, and Five Eyes [intelligence cooperative of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K. and the U.S.] relationships are essential to this network and play an important role in enhancing regional security,” Aquilino said. “Over the past three years, our network of strong, resilient and mutually reinforcing relationships have strengthened cooperation in unprecedented ways.”