Japan’s defense priorities outlined amid geopolitical tensions

Marc Jacob Prosser

Geopolitical tensions and technological innovation will continue to shape Japan’s defense priorities, analysts say, including external threats from North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and internal challenges such as human resources and technological upgrades.

Tokyo is developing safeguards to defend its interests against aggressors while supporting domestic defense advances. Hirohito Ogi, a senior research fellow at the Asia Pacific Initiative and Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan, a Tokyo-based think tank, said 2024 will be a critical year for Japan as it prepares to introduce enhanced defense capabilities pledged in strategic national defense documents in 2022.

“While R&D [research and development] and procurement are steadily going on with necessary budget appropriations, it will require a couple of years to take their delivery,” he told FORUM. “In the meantime, Japan needs to conceptualize how to operate those capabilities.”

Those efforts include new operational doctrines, establishing the planned joint operational headquarters and reviewing the bilateral command cooperation mechanism with United States forces.

Nozomu Yoshitomi, a retired major general with the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, expects Tokyo to focus on developing a mindset that incorporates input from ministries and agencies beyond the Ministry of Defense.

“Any defense policy relates not only to the MOD. Therefore, the government approach and mindset around defense policy needs to be further developed,” Yoshitomi, a professor at Nihon University’s College of Risk Management, told FORUM. “This is an ongoing work in progress but needs further attention.”

This will be particularly important in relation to recruitment, including initiatives to encourage more women and young adults to join the Japan Self-Defense Forces, he said. There also are challenges in expanding the reserve force beyond its current 60,000 personnel. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the importance of reservists in conflict and crises, Yoshitomi said. Similarly, reservists are vital in disaster relief and response, including earthquakes.

Along with strengthening the nation’s defense personnel, core priorities must include expanding capabilities such as R&D, retired Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Rear Adm. Yasuhiro Kawakami told FORUM.

“The development and deployment of underwater defense equipment, such as the recently announced plans for autonomous underwater robots, or underwater drones, is a necessary requirement for Japan to proactively address the continued development of the Indo-Pacific region,” said Kawakami, director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s Security Studies Program.

Deterrence capabilities within the broader region remain a priority, according to Stephen Nagy, a professor in the Department of Politics and International Studies at Tokyo’s International Christian University. Potential conflicts related to North Korea, the Taiwan Strait, and territorial disputes in the East China and South China seas must be considered, he told FORUM.

“Japan will also need to consider and discuss what counterstrike capabilities it will invest in to disincentivize provocations,” Nagy said. “These include physical capabilities like Tomahawk missiles but will likely also focus on the continued development of cybersecurity and general cyber capabilities.”

“Soft power” priorities for Japan include coordinated diplomacy, efforts to internationalize Indo-Pacific issues through forums such as the Group of Seven and NATO, and continued security support and collaboration with regional partners including the Philippines, he said.

Marc Jacob Prosser is a FORUM correspondent reporting from Tokyo.