U.S., PRC draw on Cold War lesson to build confidence

FORUM Staff

Echoes of a Cold War confidence-building measure (CBM) sounded in November 2023 as the leaders of the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) agreed to restore military-to-military communications.

The first formal CBM emerged in 1963 with a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and the Soviet Union that established a hotline to ensure the countries’ leaders could remain in contact. Formed in the aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis, when the nations came to the brink of nuclear conflict, the communications link aimed to prevent such upheaval.

The U.S. used the hotline in 1967 to communicate intentions behind fleet movements in the Mediterranean Sea that Moscow could have misinterpreted as hostile, according to the U.S.-based Arms Control Association. Both nations used the mechanism through the 1980s and an offshoot still connects Moscow with Washington.

A day after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping agreed to resume military communications, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he maintains the ability to communicate with his Russian counterpart even after the U.S. publicly denounced Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

“I think we have to have the ability to talk to friends; we have to have the ability to talk to adversaries. It’s important to have those channels open,” Austin said at a news conference. “Even in the height of all the things that have happened with respect to Russia and Ukraine, I’ve had the ability to pick up the phone and talk to the minister of defense of Russia. And I think that’s a critical capability that we have to maintain to manage crisis going forward. … The fact that the leaders have agreed to make sure that those channels are open, I think, is a real benefit.”

When communication lapsed between U.S. military leaders and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), U.S. officials worried that accidents or misunderstandings involving each nation’s forces could spiral into conflict — particularly in and above the East China and South China seas. The Pentagon recently documented a sharp increase in coercive and risky operational behavior by the PLA in airspace over the disputed waters. Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels, meanwhile, routinely block, harass and interfere with other nations’ lawful fishing, research missions and military operations, most visibly the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally. The U.S., Allies and Partners assure economic prosperity via safe and secure sea passageways.

The PRC refused to reestablish a communications hotline in 2022 after a U.S. delegation visited Taiwan, the self-governed island Beijing claims and threatens to annex by force. In early 2023, the PRC also refused a U.S. request for its then defense minister to meet with Austin.

The November 2023 agreement between President Biden and Xi opens the door for Austin to meet with his PRC counterpart once that person is named. The CCP has not appointed a defense minister since removing former Gen. Li Shangfu from the post in October.