Maverick states challenge nuclear weapons verification standards

FORUM Staff

Disregard of a United Nations agreement that discourages the spread of nuclear weapons and related technology jeopardizes worldwide security, experts say. Some Indo-Pacific regimes directly violate the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or diminish its confidence-building measures. The agreement, which entered into force in 1970 and is commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is the cornerstone of global efforts to stop expansion of the destructive capability.

North Korea withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and has spurned U.N. Security Council resolutions by testing weapons including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) expanded arsenal of more than 500 operational nuclear warheads likely will grow to over 1,000 by 2030, the United States Department of Defense reported in October 2023. Russia in February 2023 suspended its participation with the U.S. in the New START treaty that allows mutual inspections of nuclear sites, and in October began withdrawing its ratification of the global Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Signed by 191 nations, the NPT aims to deter the spread of nuclear weapons, encourage the reduction of existing stockpiles and promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Compliance among nations that did not have nuclear weapons before the NPT took effect is monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. “Effective verification mechanisms have proven to be some of the most successful and enduring types of confidence-building measures,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told Security Council members.

Five nations — France, the PRC, Russia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. — had nuclear weapons before 1970. Four more — India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan — now possess nuclear weapons. Signatory countries that did not have nuclear arsenals before 1970 pledge not to receive or manufacture nuclear weapons.

North Korea conducted more than 90 missile tests in 2022, significantly more than in 2021, according to media reports. It continued launches in 2023, claiming to fire a solid-fuel ICBM in April that theoretically could reach the continental U.S., The Associated Press reported. The U.N. Security Council since 2006 has passed nine resolutions sanctioning North Korea for developing nuclear weapons and related activities, though none address the latest spate of tests.

The PRC’s brisk nuclear weapons buildup surpasses most predictions, the Pentagon reported. “We see the PRC continuing to quite rapidly modernize and diversify and expand its nuclear forces,” a senior U.S. official said, Reuters reported in October 2023. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, has vowed to make the PRC a top military power. Beijing is producing a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines that are expected to be seaworthy by 2030, Reuters reported.

In early November 2023, senior U.S. officials met with the PRC foreign ministry’s director-general of arms control in Washington, D.C., for “a candid and in-depth discussion on issues related to arms control and nonproliferation as part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the U.S.-PRC relationship,” according to the U.S. State Department.

During the talks, the first of their kind between the nations since 2019, U.S. officials called for “increased PRC nuclear transparency and substantive engagement on practical measures to manage and reduce strategic risks across multiple domains, including nuclear and outer space.” They also emphasized “the need to promote stability, help avert an unconstrained arms race, and manage competition so that it does not veer into conflict,” the State Department said.

The bilateral New START agreement, meanwhile, caps the number of strategic warheads and long-range missiles that Russia and the U.S. may deploy. It’s the last remaining nuclear weapons treaty between Moscow and Washington, which have the world’s largest nuclear weapons stockpiles. The 2011 agreement, renewed in 2021, allows each nation to conduct up to 18 inspections annually of the other’s nuclear arsenals to ensure treaty compliance. Inspections stopped during the COVID-19 pandemic and had not resumed when Russia suspended its participation.

Fear of a nuclear conflict has increased since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with Russian President Vladimir Putin refusing to rule out a nuclear strike. Washington says Moscow is violating the treaty by not allowing inspections in its territory. Russia also is threatening to not renew the treaty when it expires in 2026, Reuters reported.

Putin has said Russia is developing new nuclear weapons and may test them, National Public Radio reported in October 2023. His statement preceded Moscow’s de-ratification of the CTBT, which prohibits nuclear weapons test explosions and other nuclear explosions in all situations, for either civilian or military objectives.

Progress toward nuclear disarmament is needed more than ever as the world faces growing tensions, Mirjana Spoljaric, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, said in July 2023. “Strident nuclear rhetoric and threats of use, the increasingly prominent role of nuclear weapons in military doctrines and security policies, and the continued modernization of nuclear arsenals all challenge the decadeslong nuclear taboo,” she said.

Such thinking aligns with a joint statement in 1985 by then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, then leader of the Soviet Union, that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

More than 100 states have joined an initiative to deter proliferation of nuclear weapons and other contraband while protecting legitimate trade. The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) helps the U.S., Allies and Partners assure economic prosperity via safe and secure sea passageways. It enhances enforcement by controlling sea lines of communication and territorial airspace, encouraging the detaining, boarding and searching of suspicious vessels. PSI delegates met in Jeju, South Korea, in May 2023 to stress the need for increased cooperation to counter evolving threats posed by nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, Yonhap News reported.