Defense procurements surge as tensions rise

FORUM Staff

Regional threats and Russia-Ukraine war repercussions have led some Indo-Pacific states to dramatically boost their defense capabilities. Australia, Japan and Singapore are among nations amping up security measures to encourage diplomacy, project deterrence and prepare for potential conflict in an increasingly tense environment.

Provocative actions by North Korea, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia are motivating the buildups. Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022 raised concerns throughout the Indo-Pacific, giving nations additional justifications for increased defense emphasis, Dr. Tim Huxley, a senior advisor with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), wrote in mid-September 2023. Huxley identified Taiwan, the South China and East China seas, and the Korean Peninsula as likely flashpoints.

If Russia can launch an unprovoked attack on Ukraine, observers say, what will stop the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from invading Taiwan, the self-governed island the CCP claims as its territory? Meanwhile, North Korea’s unprecedented missile tests and nuclear weapons threats have the region on edge.

Noriyuki Shikata, Japan’s cabinet secretary for public affairs, spoke of “increasingly severe and complex security challenges in the region,” in an interview with The Washington Post newspaper in February 2023. “Given the security landscape in Asia, we are obliged to respond by building up our defenses,” he said. “So, we need to improve our deterrence capabilities.”

Japan bolstered its security posture by updating three key documents in December 2022. The revised National Security Strategy identifies the PRC as Japan’s biggest strategic challenge and proclaims North Korea poses “an even more grave and imminent threat to Japan’s national security than ever before.” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for raising Japan’s defense spending to $315 billion over five years, an increase that would move the nation from ninth to third worldwide in security expenditures, John West, executive director of the Asian Century Institute think tank, wrote in a Brink News report in March 2023. Japan pledged to develop counterstrike capabilities with long-range missiles, a move its leaders maintain aligns with the nation’s defense-oriented stance since World War II.

Japan also reiterated its condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” Kishida warned at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June 2022.

Citing Moscow’s cyberattacks against Ukraine, Singapore has added an Armed Forces branch devoted to digital security. The Digital and Intelligence Service — which joins the Army, Navy and Air Force — will utilize cloud computing, data science and artificial intelligence, Defense News magazine reported in November 2022.

It’s a significant addition to the security structure in Singapore, which began establishing a defense force when it gained independence in 1965. The new branch is the Singapore Armed Forces’ response to cyber domain threats in an increasingly complex security environment, The National Interest magazine reported in October 2023.

Australia, meanwhile, is implementing recommendations of a government review released in early 2023 that concluded that the nation’s Armed Forces were “no longer fit for purpose.” The Defence Strategic Review noted an evolving and “radically different” security environment. It calls for enhancing Australia’s long-range missile capability and moving Army bases to northern locations where they will be better positioned to confront potential threats.

The review cites the CCP’s military buildup — “the largest and most ambitious of any country” since the end of World War II — as the impetus for change. The expansion “is occurring without transparency or reassurance to the Indo-Pacific region of China’s strategic intent,” the review noted.

Along with shoring up their own defenses, regional Allies and Partners are deepening cooperation to ensure a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. That includes rejecting Russia as an arms supplier in favor of partner nations. For various reasons — risk to buyers’ reputations, the weapons’ poor battlefield performance in Ukraine and sanctions preventing Russia’s access to the latest technology — Russia no longer is the region’s leading supplier, The Economist newspaper reported in March 2023. South Korea has assumed that role in Southeast Asia.

European countries also are focusing on defense capabilities. Largely spurred by the Russia-Ukraine war, France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom and others are augmenting their militaries, the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank reported in September 2023. Poland, for instance, spent 2.4% of its gross domestic product on defense in 2022. In 2023, it anticipates spending 4% of its GDP.