Taiwan expects to deploy two new submarines by 2027, security advisor says

Reuters

Taiwan hopes to deploy at least two new, domestically developed submarines by 2027 and possibly equip later models with missiles to strengthen deterrence against the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and protect key supply lines, the head of the submarine program said.

Taipei has made the program a key part of an ambitious project to modernize its Armed Forces as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which claims the democratically governed island as its territory, stages almost daily military exercises around Taiwan.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen initiated the program when she took office in 2016. The plan has drawn on expertise and technology from several countries — a breakthrough for diplomatically isolated Taiwan.

Adm. Huang Shu-kuang, Tsai’s security advisor, said a fleet of 10 submarines — which includes two Dutch-made submarines commissioned in the 1980s — will make it harder for the PLAN to project power in the Pacific.

“If we can build up this combat capacity, I don’t think we will lose a war,” Huang said in an internal September 2023 briefing on the project.

Huang said the first submarine, with a price tag of $1.54 billion, will use a combat system by Lockheed Martin Corp. and carry United States-made MK-48 heavyweight torpedoes. It will enter sea trials in October before delivery by the end of 2024.

Subsequent models will be equipped to carry anti-ship missiles, although those weapons will be added depending on production availability in the U.S., Huang said.

He called the submarines a “strategic deterrent” to PLAN warships crossing the Miyako Strait near southwestern Japan or the Bashi Channel that separates Taiwan from the Philippines.

Huang said Taiwan’s diesel-electric submarines can keep the PLAN at bay within the first island chain, referring to the area that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China’s coastal waters.

“This was also the strategic concept of the U.S. military — to contain them within the first island chain and deny their access,” Huang said. “If Taiwan is taken, Japan will definitely not be safe, South Korea will definitely not be safe.”

The PLAN, including its Shandong aircraft carrier, has been increasingly active in recent months off eastern Taiwan, prompting worries that Beijing could launch an attack from there. Planners have long envisioned that area as where Taiwan’s military would regroup and preserve its forces during a conflict.

Huang said the submarines can help maintain the island’s “lifeline” to the Pacific by keeping ports along eastern Taiwan open for supplies in a conflict. “The submarines will keep their ships away from our eastern shores,” he said.

Chieh Chung, a military researcher at Taiwan’s National Policy Foundation think tank, said the CCP could position warships in the Pacific before launching an attack.

But, he added, the submarines could occupy strategic ambush points in the region and “greatly harm (PLAN) combat ability” by targeting high-value ships such as carrier groups or landing fleets.

Taiwan has sourced technology, components and experts from at least seven nations to help it build submarines.

Huang declined to say which countries approved export permits but said he contacted generals from countries including India, Japan, South Korea and the U.S.