PRC delaying dialogue, improved relations with U.S. through vague, conflicted messaging

FORUM Staff

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) recent ambiguous, contradictory and confused statements on its relations with the United States have left many in the international community questioning the motives behind Beijing’s messaging campaign.

The PRC’s newly appointed defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, for example, called for peace but threatened war during his speech at the prestigious Shangri-La Dialogue, sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in Singapore in early June 2023.

The muddled communications have left many defense analysts to conclude that the messaging is intentional deception or a misinformation campaign designed to derail U.S. efforts to improve relations between the nations.

The PRC’s latest activities in the Indo-Pacific also seem to signal that the Chinese government is not interested in improving the relationship, analysts said.

Although Li claimed in his June 4 speech that the PRC intends to settle maritime disputes “in a peaceful manner through negotiations and consultation,” a day earlier a Chinese warship nearly collided with a U.S. Navy ship after making an unsafe maneuver in international waters in the Taiwan Strait.

“While China is talking about dialogue, China’s actions show confrontation. Thus, my question is … why is there a big difference between China’s words and actions?” Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela asked Li during the forum.

Tarriela noted that the PRC’s recent pledge to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to manage maritime disputes peacefully has not ended the Chinese coast guard’s harassment of fishermen in Philippine waters, the Philippine news site Inquirer.net reported. In February 2023, a Chinese coast guard ship also was accused of pointing a military-grade laser at a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, temporarily blinding the bridge crew.

Li defended the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) activities and warned foreign militaries to keep their distance from China’s shores and to “mind your own business,” according to the U.S. Naval Institute’s USNI News website.

The PRC continues to claim portions of the East China and South China seas and Taiwan Strait despite established maritime law that defines the areas as international waters and airspace, USNI News reported.

Similarly, “in another contradiction, Li said ‘only enhancing dialogue and communication … will ensure stability in our region’ — but he refused to meet with [U.S.] Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who was also at the conference. Li was happy to meet with many other foreign officials, but he would only shake hands with his U.S. counterpart,” according to The Washington Post newspaper.

The U.S. sanctioned Li in 2018 when he headed the PLA’s equipment development department in relation to the Chinese government’s purchase of Russian-made combat aircraft and surface-to-air missile system equipment, according to the U.S. State Department. The purchases violated U.S. sanctions on Moscow over Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its interference in U.S. politics.

Li’s speech in Singapore indicates that the PRC wants the U.S. to leave the region, Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, told The Washington Post.

“The Chinese have made it pretty clear that they believe the presence of risk will induce caution in U.S. behavior, so they won’t talk to us about risk reduction,” she said. “They are going to keep increasing the risk. That may temporarily induce caution, but they are not going to drive the U.S. out of the region.”

The U.S. stands ready to talk, Austin reiterated at the Shangri-La Dialogue.

“The United States does not seek a new Cold War, and competition must not spill over into conflict,” Austin said. “And the region should never be split into hostile blocs. Instead, we are working to strengthen the guardrails against conflict and to redouble our diplomacy, and to bolster peace and security and stability in the region.

“The United States believes that open lines of communication with the People’s Republic of China are essential, especially between our defense and military leaders,” he said. “For responsible defense leaders, the right time to talk is any time. The right time to talk is every time. The right time to talk is now. Dialogue is not a reward, it is a necessity.”

On June 5, a day after the Shangri-La Dialogue concluded, high-ranking U.S. officials met with PRC officials in Beijing to maintain lines of communication and build on recent diplomacy between the countries, according to the U.S. State Department. They also discussed cross-Strait issues and other aspects of the bilateral relationship.

“We are not trying to contain China,” Daniel Kritenbrink, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said after the talks. “Even as we compete, we will work to maintain open lines of communication, so as to avoid miscalculation and to prevent competition from veering into conflict.”