NATO, partners promote rules-based Arctic, free and open sea lines of communication

FORUM Staff

Melting ice caps in the Arctic are not only creating new shipping routes but also increasing competition to control them, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia jockeying to stake claims. NATO and its partners want to ensure that as opportunities arise for shorter trade passages between Europe and the Indo-Pacific, navigation remains free and open and sea lines of communication (SLOC) are protected.

Competition to control valuable seafaring spaces such as SLOCs — maritime routes between ports used for trade, logistics and naval forces — will define the dynamics at sea during the next decade, according to experts. The vulnerability of the maritime domain threatens the security of maritime supply chains, experts contend.

“NATO has a significant interest in preserving and enhancing the Arctic’s rules-based order, which includes open access to global sea lines of communication, protecting transatlantic communications cable networks and preventing Russia from exercising unilateral military control of the region,” according to a report on NATO and Russia in the Arctic, published in January 2021 by The International Affairs Review at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington, D.C.

Nations are also scrutinizing the Arctic ambitions of the PRC, which is rarely transparent about its motives and actions. “China’s expanding presence in both the Arctic and Antarctic is part of its broader pursuit of global great power status,” according to Frozen Frontiers: China’s Great Power Ambitions in the Polar Regions, an April 2023 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Its contributions to polar science have given it a voice and a presence in polar affairs, while opening the door to advance military and strategic goals. China is by no means the only great power to use science for strategic ends, yet mounting geopolitical competition is raising the stakes for China’s polar pursuits.”

The Northern Sea Route along Russia’s northern shoreline decreases by 40% the transit distance between Europe and the Indo-Pacific, according to Seapower Magazine, making it an attractive option for the PRC.

Before 2007, 19% of the Arctic’s sea ice was at least 4 meters thick — taller than most elephants — the journal Nature reported in March 2023. Now, only about 9.3% of the ice is that thick, the report said. The age of ice is also declining, from an average of 4.3 years to 2.7 years, according to Nature. (Pictured: A cargo ship sails through recently opened ice in the Arctic.)

With maritime commerce expected to double in the next 20 years, less ice coverage in the Arctic will bring more attention from nations seeking access, said Dr. Walter Berbrick, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College and director of its Arctic Studies Group, according to Seapower. The Transpolar Route, directly across the geographic North Pole and currently only navigable by submarine, might become navigable by surface ships by 2035, Berbrick said, according to Seapower. “How do we posture our forces to keep Arctic sea lines of communication free and open? What kind of naval power do we need [to] project from the Arctic to potentially gain an advantage in other places like the Pacific and the Atlantic?” Berbrick asked during a webinar on U.S. strategy in the Atlantic and Pacific Arctic.

NATO and its partners have already begun efforts to deter aggression and, if necessary, respond to illicit activity.

“In this more dangerous and competitive world, NATO is increasing our presence and vigilance across the alliance, including in the High North,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in an August 2022 opinion article for Canada’s The Globe and Mail newspaper. “With our strength and unity, we will continue to deter aggression, protect our values and interests and keep our people safe.”

NATO is a defensive alliance whose purpose is to prevent conflict and preserve peace, Stoltenberg wrote. While much of the Arctic has traditionally remained low tension, new SLOC opportunities could change that.

“Russia has significantly increased its military activity in recent years, setting up a new Arctic Command, opening hundreds of new and former Soviet-era Arctic military sites, including airfields and deep-water ports and using the region as [a] test-bed for novel weapon systems. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a new naval strategy pledging to protect Arctic waters ‘by all means,’ including increased activity around the non-militarized Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard and hypersonic Zircon missile systems for its Northern Fleet,” Stoltenberg wrote. “China is also expanding its reach, declaring itself a ‘near-Arctic state’ and planning a ‘Polar Silk Road’ linking China to Europe via the Atlantic. It is rapidly strengthening its navy, with plans to build the world’s biggest icebreaker vessel. China is also investing tens of billions of dollars in energy, infrastructure and research projects in the region.”

Amid these activities, NATO remains committed to preserving security, stability and cooperation in the High North, according to Stoltenberg.

“The Arctic is the gateway to the North Atlantic, hosting vital trade, transport and communication links between North America and Europe,” he wrote. “Ensuring freedom of navigation and unfettered access is essential to keep our economies strong and our people safe.”

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