North Korea’s provocative missile launches draw unified response

Felix Kim

North Korea’s provocative and destabilizing missile launches, which reached record levels in 2022, are a clear threat to South Korea and Japan, as well as to United States military forces stationed in each of those countries and, potentially, to the U.S. mainland. Seoul is committed to working with Tokyo and Washington to counter the threat, South Korean defense officials say.

After test-launching more than 90 ballistic and cruise missiles during the year, Pyongyang further raised tensions in late December when Kim Yo Jong, a top national official and the younger sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, suggested that the regime could conduct a standard-trajectory intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch. Such a launch would be highly inflammatory, as it could send a missile toward the Pacific Ocean and threaten the U.S. mainland.

“If North Korea shoots an ICBM at such a normal angle, it means the North is threatening the U.S.,” Park Yong-han, an associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses’ (KIDA) Center for Security and Strategy, told FORUM. “North Korea’s purpose of threatening the United States is now to prevent and deter the U.S. from intervening on the Korean Peninsula.”

KIDA is a government-funded affiliate of South Korea’s Defense Ministry, with which it formulates national defense policy.

South Korea and the U.S. are strengthening their deterrence capabilities against the North by bolstering their alliance, Park said. “Even if North Korea has the ability to attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons, the trust that the U.S. will support the defense of the Korean Peninsula will not collapse.”

Among Seoul’s readiness measures against a potential attack is strengthening its Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system to intercept incoming missiles, Park said.

The KAMD is part of South Korea’s three-axis defense system, along with the Kill Chain strategy to preemptively strike North Korean missile sites if an attack is imminent, and the Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan to incapacitate the reclusive nation’s leadership if hostilities begin. In short, the Kim regime would be doomed if it launched an attack, according to Park.

Moreover, the U.S. military presence includes the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system deployed in Seongju to prevent North Korean missiles from reaching the South. Coordination between Republic of Korea (ROK) and U.S. forces “is crucial to address the potential threat of a North Korean ICBM launch,” Park said.

Japan, too, is an integral partner in thwarting and responding to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, Kim Sang-jin, director general of the South Korean Defense Ministry’s International Policy Bureau, wrote in a recent essay for KIDA.

“Japan is regarded as a friendly partner in deterring and countering North Korea’s nuclear/missile threats, particularly since its unique advantage of geographical location can provide us useful intelligence on North Korea’s nuclear/missile weapons,” he wrote. “In addition, ROK-U.S.-Japan trilateral drills help reinforce the ROK military’s capabilities.”

The ROK Navy’s participation in the International Fleet Review hosted by Japan in November 2022 and in joint anti-submarine exercises with Japan and the U.S. in September 2022 strengthened maritime security cooperation, he noted. (Pictured: Republic of Korea Soldiers operate a short-range surface-to-air missile system during a military exercise in Yangju, South Korea, in late December 2022.)

South Korea’s Defense Ministry “will remain committed to maintaining an ironclad ROK-U.S. combined defense posture against North Korea’s sophisticated nuclear/missile threats,” he concluded. “At the same time, we will do our utmost to promote ROK-U.S.-Japan/ROK-Japan security cooperation and international support, getting full mileage out of this naval participation.”

Felix Kim is a FORUM contributor reporting from Seoul, South Korea.

IMAGE CREDIT: SOUTH KOREAN DEFENSE MINISTRY/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS