Kim regime promotes its demise through U.N. Security Council resolution violations — increasing likelihood of miscalculation

FORUM Staff

North Korea ended 2022 the way it began the year, firing missiles in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions. And following a year of unprecedented missile launches by Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un began 2023 by ordering an “exponential” expansion of its nuclear arsenal.

Should his threats materialize — and if Kim orders a nuclear attack — the Republic of Korea (ROK) and United States armed forces, along with allies and partners, have vowed to end his regime.

“The new year started, but our security situation is still very grave,” South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol told military officials during a video conference, according to The Associated Press (AP). “Our military must resolutely punish any provocation by the enemy with a firm determination that we dare to risk fighting a battle.”

Kim wasted no time acting out in 2023 with Pyongyang firing a short-range ballistic missile on New Year’s Day into the East Sea, also known as the Sea of Japan, according to Agence France-Presse. The ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile flew 400 kilometers before splashing into the sea. Pyongyang’s continued defiance of U.N. resolutions increases the risk of miscalculation and destabilizes peace and security in Northeast Asia and beyond, according to experts.

“Our military will maintain a solid readiness posture based on capabilities to respond overwhelmingly to any North Korean provocations,” the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Japan lodged a protest with North Korea over the New Year’s Day launch. Such military activities “pose grave and imminent threats to Japan’s security and significantly undermine the peace and security of the region and the international community,” according to Japan’s 2022 defense white paper.

Japan is upgrading its ballistic missile defenses amid tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force practiced shooting down short- and medium-range ballistic missile targets using SM-3 Block IB and SM-3 Block IIA interceptors in Hawaii in November 2022, The Japan Times newspaper reported. It marked the first time a Japanese warship fired an SM-3 Block IIA, which is an advanced weapon developed by Japan and the U.S.

“North Korea’s missile tests are not only escalating regional tensions but also raising the threat posed to neighboring countries, as the regime seeks to make up for its military weaknesses against Washington and its Asian allies by expanding its missile and nuclear arsenal,” according to The Japan Times. “But while Pyongyang has traditionally sought to drive wedges between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul, the latest developments also indicate that its repeated provocations are having the opposite effect.”

Japanese and South Korean officials are exploring ways to share real-time radar data on North Korean launches, according to news reports in early January 2023. Increased intelligence sharing will improve their responses to missile tests, and an agreement could be in place this year, NK News reported.

“The biggest mutual benefit for Japan and South Korea is that it will enhance the accuracy of detecting and tracking the missiles, and that would be essential for both interception and counterstrikes,” Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, a project assistant professor at the University of Tokyo’s Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, told NK News.

South Korean officials announced in January 2023 that they’re also working with U.S. officials on upgrading their joint response to North Korea.

In 2022, North Korea launched more missiles than in any other year, including 23 in a single day. By the end of December, the North had launched more than 90 cruise and ballistic missiles, according to CNN. Following his November 2022 meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup said the two “affirmed that any nuclear attack by the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea], including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and [will] result in the end of [the] Kim Jong Un regime by the overwhelming and decisive response of the alliance,” according to a U.S. Defense Department transcript. “This is a strong warning against the DPRK.”

Austin offered reassurance that the ROK-U.S. alliance remains “ironclad” amid the North’s provocations and destabilizing actions.

“The United States remains fully committed to the defense of the ROK,” Austin said. “And our extended deterrence commitment is firm. And it includes a full range of our nuclear and conventional and missile defense capabilities.”

Kim Regime Facing ‘Dire Consequences’

The U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS) says that while North Korea does not rival the People’s Republic of China or Russia in scale, it presents deterrence dilemmas for the U.S. and its allies and partners. “It poses a persistent threat and growing danger to the U.S. homeland and the Indo-Pacific region as it expands, diversifies and improves its nuclear, ballistic missile and non-nuclear capabilities, including its chemical weapons stockpile,” according to the NDS. “A crisis or conflict on the Korean Peninsula could involve a number of nuclear-armed actors, raising the risk of broader conflict.”

The NDS makes clear the Kim regime faces “dire consequences” should it use nuclear weapons, echoing Lee’s message that an attack would lead to its demise.

“There is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive,” according to the NDS. “Short of nuclear use, North Korea can also conduct rapid strategic attacks in East Asia. United States nuclear weapons continue to play a role in deterring such attacks.”

The day after Christmas, the North sent five drones into South Korean airspace for five hours, according to reports, causing ROK forces to scramble fighter jets, attack helicopters and other aircraft. One drone reached Seoul before vanishing from South Korean military radar. The drones did not approach the presidential office, and ROK officials added that “better defensive systems are deployed near important facilities,” the Korea JoongAng Daily newspaper reported.

Accuracy of North Korea’s Missiles Questionable

The risk of miscalculation remains high as the North continues its irresponsible and reckless launches, violating United Nations Security Council resolutions that demand Pyongyang cease nuclear and missile tests.

So far, the North’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests have occurred at a steep angle to avoid neighboring countries. Without the standard trajectory launch of ICBMs, however, the reliability of North Korea’s weapons remains questionable, according to The Associated Press (AP). Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, dismissed doubts about the North’s weapons accuracy and spy satellite development. Pyongyang claimed to have recently tested its first military reconnaissance satellite, releasing two low-resolution photos of South Korean cities as captured from space, AP reported. In responding to suspicions about the spy satellite claims in late December 2022, Kim Yo Jong also suggested the North could fire a missile toward the Pacific Ocean to prove its viability and accuracy.

“I can clear up their doubt about it. They will immediately recognize it in case we launch an ICBM in the way of real angle firing straight off,” said Kim Yo Jong, whose official title is vice department director at the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party. She’s considered the most influential official after her brother.

Despite sanctions and international pressure to denuclearize, North Korea has pledged to boost its defense. Kim Jong Un in September 2022 said his regime would “never give up nuclear weapons and there is absolutely no denuclearization, no negotiation and no bargaining chip to trade in the process.”

An Upgraded Response to an Increasing Threat

In October 2022, U.S. Forces Korea delivered new equipment to its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, located 200 kilometers south of Seoul. ROK officials provided limited details about the upgrades but said they would improve “the defense capability of the existing THAAD system to protect the [South] Korean people from the North Korean missile threat and further strengthen the defense capability for core assets.”

THAAD can shoot down short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. It is not armed with warheads but strikes its target at high speed, destroying it.

The U.S. military has also launched a Space Force component in South Korea to help detect North Korean ballistic missile launches. Activated in December 2022, the new unit will coordinate space operations and services such as missile warning, position navigation, and timing and satellite communications in the region.

“Myself and my Guardians are ready to go, day or night,” said Lt. Col. Joshua McCullion, U.S. Space Forces Korea commander, according to CNN. “That’s (the message) we want the adversary, whoever that adversary is, to take.”

Also in December, U.S. Air Force B-52 bombers and F-22 stealth fighters flew with ROK warplanes, including F-35 and F-15 fighters, southwest of Jeju Island in a show of force.

IMAGE CREDIT: FORUM