Hope for peace, democracy inspires Myanmar resistance movement

FORUM Staff

Myanmar’s disparate resistance groups share a vision of a democratic nation and have made progress toward that end. Many observers agree: If opponents of the brutal armed forces that took over Myanmar two years ago coalesce, and international condemnation is backed by action, the ousted democratically elected government can prevail.

Since the military coup February 1, 2021, the underground National Unity Government (NUG) and dozens of ethnic groups that have governed territory across the country for decades are making headway, having shifted tactics from civil disobedience to armed resistance. International criticism of the illegitimate regime also has increased, with some saying strong words are not enough. (Pictured: Members of the People’s Defence Force, the armed wing of the civilian National Unity Government opposed to Myanmar’s ruling junta, train at a camp in Kayin State, near the Myanmar-Thai border, in October 2021.)

The ruling junta, also called the Tatmadaw, has killed more than 2,800 democracy activists and other civilians, including children, and arrested nearly 17,500 people as of late January 2023, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a nonprofit human rights organization based in Thailand and Yangon, Myanmar. More than 1.4 million people have been displaced, with many living in jungle camps, The New York Times newspaper reported in early December 2022. Amid its killings, torture, rape, bombings of villages and other atrocities, the junta’s execution of four political opponents in late July 2022, including two prominent pro-democracy activists, emboldened internal opponents and drew global censure.

“The international community as a whole has failed, and the U.N. is part of the international community,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in mid-November 2022. “The political, security, human rights and humanitarian situation in Myanmar is sliding ever deeper into catastrophe.”

The U.N. Security Council in mid-December 2022 passed a resolution calling for an immediate end to violence, the release of political prisoners including democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi, unimpeded humanitarian access, and the upholding of women’s and children’s rights. Russia and the People’s Republic of China, which both have provided weapons to the junta, abstained from voting.

“It is clearly time for the creation of a working coalition of nations who are willing to stand with the people of Myanmar by providing what they need most — action,” Thomas Andrews, the U.N.’s special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, said in a statement.

Chris Sidoti, a founding member of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, an independent group of international experts, said in a news release that the global community, including the International Criminal Court (ICC), must take steps to procure justice. Based in The Hague, Netherlands, the ICC investigates and prosecutes genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing repeatedly has delayed implementing ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus, despite endorsing it in April 2021. The agreement seeks an immediate end to violence, peace negotiations and other provisions.

The resistance’s hopes rest, in part, with international pressure to cripple the governing body set up by the military, the State Administrative Council (SAC). Resistance groups are not relying on Min Aung Hlaing’s promise to hold elections in August 2023 any more than they did his post-coup vow to stop the bloodshed.

There are indications the Tatmadaw’s control is weakening. Along with morale problems, the SAC is struggling to get ammunition, weapons, food and recruits, the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported in early December 2022. Meanwhile, resistance forces are advancing on SAC-held territories, the think tank said.

“The military is collapsing,” Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd, a Myanmar expert at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, told FORUM. “It’s no longer a professional military. There’s no code of conduct.”

Military defections, international pressure and a groundswell of internal support are nonlethal factors that favor the resistance, said Byrd, who recently visited defectors and refugees near the Thailand-Myanmar border.

Rights groups have called for a global arms embargo, and for blocking the junta’s aviation fuel imports and foreign revenue transactions, The New York Times reported in early December 2022. The NUG later that month welcomed the United States’ passage of legislation allowing direct negotiations with Myanmar’s government in exile and enabling U.S. President Joe Biden to offer nonlethal support to forces opposing the Tatmadaw.

“We must continue to apply pressure. It is the only possible way out of this conflict,” Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, told The Diplomat magazine in mid-December 2022.

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