Prospects and Possibilities

Dr. Ng Eng Hen/Singapore Ministry of Defence

The last time I was speaking at the Putrajaya Forum was four years ago. It would not be an exaggeration to state that since we met four years ago, the world has changed, precipitated by not one, but two epochal events — COVID and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. These singular challenges have stress-tested existing arrangements, alliances and partnerships, revealing gaps and vulnerabilities. We should address these collectively, as no one country can do it alone. Other transnational challenges that my counterpart Dato Seri Hishammuddin Hussein in Malaysia rightly pointed out, such as terrorism, climate change and natural disasters, may have receded in focus somewhat as we dealt with these two events, but they can similarly shock our countries in the future.

COVID and the Ukraine-Russia conflict have had an impact globally, and far beyond the security realm. There are common threads from both that we can draw lessons to develop or strengthen existing initiatives to make our regions, or ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations], at least, more resilient. There are quite a few challenges, but I will focus on three.

First, supply chain disruptions. With COVID, I think all of us experienced in our countries, we witnessed what happened during national lockdowns that put a brake on the flow of raw materials and finished goods. I’m sure this happened in many, many other countries. This led to shortages of essential consumer products and staples, electronic parts, such as semiconductors, and even critical medical supplies, such as personal protective equipment. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has also had a similar impact. The prices of commodities and fuel have already risen sharply. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter, and combined with Ukraine, the “breadbasket of Europe,” accounts for almost one-third of the world’s wheat exports. Russia also supplies about 40% of Europe’s natural gas and about one-quarter of the European Union’s crude oil imports.

On an aggregate level, ASEAN is a net exporter of agricultural products. We ought to explore mechanisms to pool resources to build up resilience and minimize disruptions in our region during times of crises. ASEAN has committed to the joint statement by ministers on agriculture and forestry in 2020 to ensure food security, food safety and nutrition in the region amidst COVID, and also through the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, which helps member states procure the medical supplies and equipment needed to combat the pandemic. ASEAN is also working to extend tariff exemptions for a list of essential goods, and even to expand it to include staple food items and vaccine-related products. These are good initiatives, but we need to do more.

The second challenge we face is geopolitical rivalry and alliances. In a perfect world, our fight against COVID, which is a public health challenge, should have been a common one, regardless of political ideology or affiliation, developed or emerging economies. All of us know we do not live in a perfect world, but even so, multilateral institutions face difficulties to forge coordinated action in a polarized world. Even the distribution and choice of vaccines could be politicized and resulted in stark differences in vaccine choice, distribution and acceptance, medical care, sufficiency of oxygen, and medical products. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict put at risk climate change-related efforts, such as carbon emission reductions and the development of green enterprises and financing, efforts related to cybersecurity, building digital economies and enhancing digital norms. All these will be difficult to put on the global agenda when these rivalries are sharpened.

The third challenge is the resumption or aggravation of existing threats. I refer to terrorism and cyberattacks. In spite of COVID movement restrictions, terrorist groups are still active in organizing, instigating and conducting attacks, including in our region. Global terrorist groups such as ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] and al-Qaida have proven resilient and adaptable. They have kept their recruitment and radicalization strategies current and are exploiting cyberspace to great effect. With the removal of COVID restrictions to travel, we can expect an increase in terrorist activity.

For threats from the cyber domain, both COVID and the Ukraine-Russia conflict also show the impact that disinformation has on the physical world. With COVID, conspiracies and anti-vaccine movements caused undue panic, divided people and their governments, and undermined global public health efforts.

Critical infrastructure can be affected through the digital domain. Last May [2021], a ransomware attack on a major American oil pipeline system, Colonial Pipeline, jammed the flow of products in the U.S. East Coast. In October [2021], there was a cyberattack on Iran’s fuel system. More recently, cyberattacks affected oil shipments from terminals in Belgium and Germany. These incidents are clear examples of the false divide between the virtual and physical worlds.

Both state and nonstate actors would have recognized the power of the digital domain, and threats emanating from this domain can only increase.

WAY FORWARD FOR SECURITY COOPERATION

ASEAN can address these challenges collectively, based on international principles that individual countries can agree on. Let me cite three key areas.

First, we must uphold the primacy of each and every country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Where there are disputes, we must reject forced and illegal aggression by any country, and instead pursue the settlement of disputes by peaceful means. Here, we have good examples, including during the disputes between Malaysia and Indonesia over Sipadan and Ligitan, between Malaysia and Singapore on Pedra Branca, Middle Rocks and South Ledge, as well as the land reclamation by Singapore in and around the Straits of Johor, where these disputes were settled peacefully and based on well-accepted international law or practices.

Second, while each country must be able to make decisions based on its own interests, there are shared mechanisms to address transnational challenges and engage in confidence-building measures to de-escalate tensions and mitigate adverse consequences. Again, we have positive examples of collaborations in our region — Malaysia and Singapore are part of the Malacca Straits Patrol that commenced operations in 2004, and Malaysia is also part of the Trilateral Cooperative Agreement in the Sulu-Celebes seas, established in 2017, to address threats like terrorism and piracy. We have confidence-building initiatives such as the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, which all 18 ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) navies have practiced, and Guidelines for Air Military Encounters. We ought to use similar cooperative frameworks to tackle transnational challenges, including supply chain disruptions for essential commodities and even energy.

Third, in the security sector, we must step up dialogue and collaboration, build confidence, and increase understanding through established platforms. The ADMM, and the ADMM-Plus — comprising 18 nations that make up close to 90% of the world’s military forces — is now the de facto security arrangement of Asia. We also have the Five Power Defence Arrangements between Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and the U.K. We collaborate through initiatives including the ADMM Cybersecurity and Information Centre of Excellence, the ASEAN Cyber Defence Network and the Counter-Terrorism Information Facility. These multilateral platforms facilitate information sharing, strengthen trust between militaries and enhance cooperation for our region to achieve our common goals and mitigate common threats.

By strengthening resilience and response within ASEAN, and by ASEAN, to these challenges, we will give greater credibility to ASEAN centrality.

Two epochal events have changed our world since we last met. Vulnerabilities and deficiencies have been exposed, and we must take collective action to address them to ensure that peace, stability and progress continue in our region and beyond.  

Singaporean Minister of Defence Dr. Ng Eng Hen delivered this speech March 29, 2022, at the sixth Putrajaya Forum in Malaysia, which was organized by the Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security to bring together defense ministers, officials and academics to discuss defense and security matters. It has been edited to fit FORUM’s format.