Countering Nontraditional Security Threats

Sreeparna Banerjee and Pratnashree Basu/Observer Research Foundation

A shift in the notion of security since the end of the Cold War resulted in the accommodation of nonmilitary — thereby, nontraditional — threats to security. Nontraditional security (NTS) comprises a gamut of human security concerns such as climate change, shortages of resources such as energy and food, infectious diseases, natural disasters, transnational crime, human and drug trafficking, and mass migration. Analysts refer to this as the human security-development nexus. These NTS areas have typically fallen outside the purview of discussions on more immediate threats to national security such as territorial encroachment. Addressing these challenges also often calls for the involvement of transnational actors.

This report explores how cooperation on nontraditional security threats can be a catalyst for building stronger partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. It looks at two distinct but interrelated segments. First, it identifies the key issues affecting countries in South and Southeast Asia, as well as Pacific island nations. Second, it analyzes how cooperation platforms such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum, the Blue Dot Network and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) can mitigate NTS issues and provide opportunities for states in terms of better security governance and cooperation among players in the region.

Nontraditional Security Issues: An Overview

South Asia 

South Asia has experienced a succession of natural disasters. In 2004, for example, an earthquake and tsunami devastated littorals of the Indian Ocean. In 2007, Cyclone Sidr hit Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, and in its wake, left a catastrophe. In 2020, Cyclone Amphan displaced nearly 5 million people across Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Myanmar. It was among the world’s biggest displacements caused by a natural disaster. These disasters cause economic losses and massive casualties. Often, the impacts are made more severe by inadequate early warning systems and ineffective responses. 

In recent years, countries in the region have faced growing NTS threats related to climate change. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that rising sea levels would have calamitous effects in low-lying areas of the region. The glacial recession seen in the Himalayas, meanwhile, can pose a severe threat to river systems. 

Moreover, climate change-induced migration is growing. In a 2018 report, the World Bank predicted that over 140 million people will migrate from their native countries by 2050 due to climate change. Climate change-induced migration not only heightens tensions and inequalities but also has ramifications for access to essential services such as education and health care. Bangladesh, for example, has become a hot spot for this phenomenon. Compounding the challenges for Bangladesh is the influx of displaced ethnic Rohingya from Myanmar. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, of the 1 million displaced Rohingyas and asylum seekers from Myanmar in neighboring countries, 860,000 are in Bangladesh.

In this regard, a wide range of migration measures can be considered, including mainstreaming migration into national development initiatives; synergizing frameworks on migration and humanitarian assistance; and developing comprehensive humanitarian response training programs for local stakeholders. Other strategies can include enhancing public-private partnerships; ensuring the involvement of civil society groups; and empowering migrants and diaspora communities. 

Southeast Asia 

Southeast Asia continues to be a hot spot for illegal drug cartels that operate across the Golden Triangle, considered the world’s second-largest drug-producing area and leading producer of opium. 

The U.N. estimates that poppy cultivation in Myanmar has tripled since 2006 and now covers 60,703 hectares. Despite some economic growth in pre-coup Myanmar, the peripheral regions remain untouched by development projects and, therefore, activities such as poppy cultivation have continued to thrive. While the U.N. has attempted interventions by introducing crop substitution in Myanmar, as well as in Laos, drug trafficking has grown rapidly, posing challenges for other nations as well. 

Vietnam, for instance, which has some of the world’s most stringent drug laws, is a transit hub for heroin and methamphetamine. Countries such as Japan, the People’s Republic of China and South Korea, along with ASEAN countries, are witnessing a shift  from the use of heroin to amphetamine-type stimulants smuggled and trafficked from the Golden Triangle.

As in South Asia, the countries of Southeast Asia — especially Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam — are experiencing threats related to climate change. The U.N. predicts that the risk of floods and droughts will increase for Southeast Asia in the next 10 years, leading to economic losses representing 3% of gross domestic product for the Philippines, 2% for Laos and over 1.5% for Cambodia.

Other threats are equally stark: Forest cover in Indonesia has dropped from 65.4% in 1990 to 50.2% in 2013 due to overexploitation of palm oil; plastic waste from some Southeast Asian countries (along with the PRC) accounts for half of all plastic waste in the world’s oceans; and countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines are perennially threatened by earthquakes and associated disasters, given their location in the Pacific’s Ring of Fire. 

Pacific Island Nations 

Although greenhouse gas emissions from Pacific island nations remain low, the threats of global warming to these islands, in particular sea-level rise, cannot be underestimated. These states also experience transnational crime, natural disasters, and illegal and unsustainable exploitation of resources. They often have limited resources to combat the threats and, therefore, would need the help of multilateral partnerships.

Collaborating on Nontraditional Threats

There is no dearth of partnerships designed to strengthen conventional security. However, the imperative is to expand the scope of existing mechanisms to include mitigation of NTS threats and to create new cooperation frameworks.

Over the years, ASEAN’s regional security framework has been continually tested by NTS challenges. These include the Asian economic crisis of 1997, the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2002-03, the bird flu epidemic in 2007 and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic that expanded globally in 2020. 

ASEAN has instituted a number of mechanisms to deal with such challenges. For example, the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response is the policy backbone for member states to enhance collective efforts to reduce disaster risks and respond to disasters. The ASEAN Regional Forum, meanwhile, is where members discuss security issues and develop cooperative measures to enhance peace and security in the region through policy formulations. For its part, the ASEAN Political-Security Community has paved the way for the states to conduct security cooperation and pursue political alignment. 

The ASEAN Plan of Action Against Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, outlines specific steps within the boundaries of ASEAN member states’ domestic laws and policies, as well as relevant international obligations. The aim is to address regional challenges common to all member states. 

In early 2020, ASEAN member states responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by issuing a movement restriction order and launching information-sharing. 

ASEAN also works with other countries on different platforms, for example, the ASEAN Plus Three initiative with Japan, the PRC and South Korea. The bloc also works with India in the ASEAN Regional Forum Disaster Relief Exercise. Indeed, India aspires to build close ties with the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, India has also expressed willingness to work with ASEAN in producing generic drugs and medical technologies. 

Blue Dot Network 

Australia, Japan and the United States launched the Blue Dot Network in 2019 to promote infrastructure development. In collaboration with countries such as India, the network stresses sustainable projects, including through certification. A key network agreement deals with a “smart cities” project in ASEAN countries. Some have also proposed a Blue Dot Marketplace to help countries achieve sustainable infrastructure by identifying potential impacts on food security, disasters and health. 

Indian Ocean Rim Association 

The IORA aims to strengthen regional cooperation and sustainable development through its 23 member states and 10 dialogue partners. The group addresses the many traditional and nontraditional safety and security challenges facing its members, including piracy, armed robberies at sea, terrorism, human trafficking, undocumented migration, and trafficking of wildlife, drugs and weapons. There are also challenges such as illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, degradation of ocean health, and unlawful exploitation of marine resources, all of which are compounded by climate change. 

In January 2021, the first IORA expert group meeting on disaster risk management set a road map for establishing the IORA Working Group on Disaster Risk Management.

Member states also finalized guidelines for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations in the Indian Ocean. The IORA should strengthen cooperation to combat nontraditional security threats, building on the IORA Action Plan proposal for a permanent working group on maritime safety and security.

BIMSTEC 

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)  — comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand — has identified the fight against terrorism and organized international crime as one of the prerequisites for sustainable growth and for maintaining peace in the region. The BIMSTEC Convention on Cooperation in Combating International Terrorism, Transnational Organized Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking, adopted in 2009, is a confidence-building measure for member states to counter those challenges together, subject to their domestic laws and regulations. 

Although the 15-article convention does not mention human trafficking or undocumented migration, the national security advisors of BIMSTEC members have been meeting annually and the countries are in the process of ratifying the mechanism for cooperation. The national security advisors will then develop measures for cooperation and coordination in law enforcement, intelligence and security. This could boost the capacity-building of the security apparatus and enable real-time information sharing. In disaster management, BIMSTEC can facilitate capacity-building cooperation by sharing knowledge and technical expertise, framing standard operating procedures, and creating and funding a disaster response force. 

Minilateral Forums 

The Quad 

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, is a strategic partnership among Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. that draws on the members’ shared interest in ensuring prosperity within the Indo-Pacific region. The Quad agenda covers cooperation in areas such as critical technologies and materials, reliable supply chains, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cyber issues, COVID-19 response, vaccine production, and climate change, and could include ASEAN countries on issue-based cooperation.

The Quad is also developing a robust architecture for disaster management and capacity-building within the Indo-Pacific. 

Australia-India-Japan Trilateral 

The geostrategic importance of the Indo-Pacific can be the perfect point for Australia, India and Japan to build cooperation and promote a rules-based order. 

The three countries are committed to providing each other and their neighbors with HADR. Furthermore, India and Japan have undertaken joint exercises focusing on HADR operations. The COVID-19 pandemic has also allowed the three countries to work on scientific development and research capacity by sharing medical supplies and HADR operations. 

Another challenge is IUU fishing, which has intensified due to consumer demand and threatens to worsen resource scarcity. There are also the threats of maritime crimes such as piracy, trafficking and smuggling, and forced labor. As homes to large fishing communities, Australia, India and Japan should expand their reach by working together through the IORA, as well as other targeted platforms such as the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission.

A New Regional Order

The emergence of trilateral, minilateral and multilateral groups, as well as growing bilateral synergy among like-minded nations, are key developments shaping the new regional order. At the same time, strategic choices designed according to national interests and objectives will continue to characterize the Indo-Pacific region. 

Countries should pursue regional strategies and action plans that address the various nontraditional security threats. State and nonstate actors could build on existing regional frameworks and initiatives and create more targeted plans of action. 

Function-based cooperation that focuses on tangible and measurable goals is quickly becoming a preferred mode of cooperation, in addition to the traditional format of partnerships based on economic or security imperatives. Minilateral platforms that have emerged in the Indo-Pacific over the past few years are orienting toward a function-based cooperation structure. For progress in areas of nontraditional security, this can be beneficial.  

Observer Research Foundation, based in New Delhi, India, originally published this report in March 2022. It has been edited to fit FORUM’s format. Access the original report in full at https://www.orfonline.org/research/strengthening-partnerships-to-counter-non-traditional-security-threats-in-the-indo-pacific/.