Russia’s aggressive military activity near Japan sparks concern
Felix Kim
Russia’s increased military actions near Japan, including exercises in September 2022, fortification of islands claimed by both nations and repeated intrusions into Japanese airspace, justify Tokyo’s recent designation of Russia as an “aggressor nation,” analysts say, particularly given Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
“Prior to the last two or three decades, Russia has historically been Japan’s primary security challenge,” Jeffrey Hornung, a defense analyst with the Rand Corp., told FORUM. The rise of the People’s Republic of China as the dominant military player with claims on Japanese territory has increasingly drawn Tokyo’s defense focus, but the dangers posed by Russia remain, he added.
Japan’s Defense Ministry designated Russia an aggressor in its latest white paper, published in July 2022, the same month it issued “Development of Russian Armed Forces in the Vicinity of Japan.” The report revealed that the Japan Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets more than 300 times in each of the prior five years to respond to Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft flying over or near Japanese territory.
Factoring largely in the report are 56 islands occupied by Russia or its predecessor state, the Soviet Union, since 1945. Known in Russia as the Kuril Islands, the archipelago stretches between Japan’s island prefecture Hokkaido and Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. Japan claims the four southernmost Kurils as its Northern Territories. According to the report, Russia has been militarizing two of the Japanese-claimed islands since 2011, and has about 3,500 troops stationed there, along with tanks, long-range surface-to-air missiles, rocket launchers, helicopters and other assets.
Russia has stepped up military exercises near Japan since 2018, the Defense Ministry report added. The latest iteration of Moscow’s multilateral Vostok exercise, conducted in early September 2022, involved up to 50,000 troops, 140 aircraft and 60 warships, according to media reports. Drills took place on two of the disputed islands and also included maneuvers in the Sea of Japan by the Russian and PRC navies.
A month after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which Tokyo condemned at the United Nations, Russia conducted a unilateral military exercise on the disputed island chain, Reuters reported. Russian forces staged drills to repel an assault on the islands, including practicing shooting down military transport planes and testing anti-tank guided missile systems.
“Japan and the United States have always thought that there’s only one possible target for such exercises, which is Japan,” Hornung said. “And so that’s always kept Japan concerned.”
In addition to scrambling fighters, Japan is keeping its naval assets readied in response to Russia’s activities, Hornung said. Meanwhile, he added, Japan’s military alliance with the U.S., which has grown closer since the invasion of Ukraine, is the best defense and deterrence against Russian aggression. (Pictured: Japanese and U.S. fighter jets conduct drills over the Sea of Japan in June 2022.)
Japan’s defense white paper also noted that Tokyo is adopting a preemptive strategy to “deter changes to the status quo by force and to also be fully prepared for modern warfare, including information warfare and cyber warfare, both seen during Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”
Felix Kim is a FORUM contributor reporting from Seoul, South Korea.
IMAGE CREDIT: THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
