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Assessment supports call for hike in Japan’s defense spending

FORUM Staff

Japan’s 2022 report on its defense posture centers on the nation’s condemnation of Russia’s unprovoked assault on Ukraine and the war’s implications for the Indo-Pacific, including aggressive behavior by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and North Korea. The report concludes such actions threaten the security of Japan and the international order.

The assessment and its suggested courses of action counter Japan’s decadeslong standing as a pacifist nation with an aversion to warfare. That’s part of its purpose, according to analysts: state the government’s security concerns and build support for a significant increase in defense spending.

“The international community is currently facing its greatest trial since WWII,” then-Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi wrote in Japan’s annual defense white paper, released in late July 2022. Yasukazu Hamada, who replaced Kishi as defense minister in August 2022, echoed that warning, proclaiming the world faces “a new era of crisis,” according to The Japan Times newspaper. Hamada said Tokyo must rethink its security approach amid threats from the PRC, Russia and North Korea.

The summary of Japan’s defensive capabilities, alliances and challenges takes an increasingly hawkish approach “where the equilibrium between economic cooperation and security policy has tilted in favor of the latter,” according to the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), a nonprofit think-tank based in Sweden. The white paper called for a global response to maintain accepted standards and ensure a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. (Pictured: Japan Ground Self-Defense Force troops drill during exercise Fuji Firepower in Gotenba City in May 2022.)

Russia’s assault established a precedent that could lead to unlawful moves elsewhere, the white paper maintains. “Russia’s continuing aggression against Ukraine since February 2022 is a serious violation of international law prohibiting the use of force. There are concerns that the effects of such unilateral changes to the status quo by force may extend to the Indo-Pacific region.”

The PRC has fueled tension in the region with its expansive territorial claims in the East China and South China seas, including the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands. Beijing also claims Taiwan as its territory and increasingly threatens to forcibly seize control of the self-governed island.

Beijing’s “ties with Russia, an aggressor nation, have deepened in recent years, with joint navigations and flights being conducted in the areas surrounding Japan by both Chinese and Russian vessels and aircraft,” Kishi wrote. “Furthermore, China has made clear that it would not hesitate to unify Taiwan by force, further increasing tensions in the region.”

For the first time, Japan’s defense white paper expressed solidarity with Taiwan, analysts noted. “The overall trend clearly indicates a change in Japan’s foreign policy trajectory toward Taiwan,” the ISDP reported.

Taiwan is “an extremely important partner for Japan, sharing the same fundamental values such as freedom and democracy,” the white paper noted. Stability of Taiwan’s democratically elected government is “critical for Japan’s security and must be closely monitored with a sense of urgency.”

The white paper was released days before a United States congressional delegation that included House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party denounced the stopover and its People’s Liberation Army subsequently conducted military drills in and around the Taiwan Strait that included launching five ballistic missiles that landed within 160 kilometers of Japan.

PRC foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Japan’s white paper “exaggerates the so-called China threat” and interferes in China’s internal affairs, Reuters reported.
North Korea, meanwhile, has test-fired more than 40 ballistic missiles in 2022, including one launched over Japan in early October, and threatens to launch a nuclear warhead. It also backs Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

To counter such threats, Japan should spend more on defense and render a new strategy “to preemptively deter changes to the status quo by force and to also be fully prepared for modern warfare, including information warfare and cyber warfare, both seen during Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” the white paper states.

Japan “is also continuing to establish its self-defense forces as an integrated, multidomain force that will integrate its capabilities in additional domains such as space, cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum,” the Defense News website reported in late July 2022.

Partnerships with like-minded nations are another deterrent. Japan and the U.S. have an unshakable bond, the white paper states. Meanwhile, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. — is a growing partnership with a focus on multilateral security, and Japan also has strong ties with other regional partners and European nations.

Japan should enhance these security relationships, observers said. The Philippines, for instance, shares many of Japan’s defense challenges. “There should be no doubt that strengthening security cooperation between Japan and the Philippines, a process over 10 years in the making, will enhance deterrence in the region and contribute to the future development and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific,” Japan Air Self-Defense Force Lt. Col. Kojiro Tonosaki wrote in a Center for Strategic and International Studies article in July 2022.

Japan’s defense white paper repeatedly casts Russia’s attack against Ukraine and Moscow’s friendship with the PRC as game changers. “The focus on the ongoing conflict thousands of kilometers away comes as Japan looks warily at military powerhouse China and its plans for self-ruled Taiwan, with [Japanese] Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warning repeatedly that ‘Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,’” The Japan Times reported.
IMAGE CREDIT: REUTERS

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