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Russia-Ukraine war negatively impacts Russian arms sales to Southeast Asia

FORUM Staff

Russia has remained one of the largest exporters of arms to Southeast Asia over the past two decades, but the value of its defense sales in the region has fallen sharply since 2014 — when Russia annexed Crimea — according to new report. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes it more difficult for sales to rebound, leading to a further decline in arms exports to Southeast Asia, according to the report in the bulletin ISEAS Perspective, published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based research institution.

“Sanctions will make it difficult for Russian defence companies to receive payments from foreign customers, and export controls will severely restrict their access to high-tech components,” the May 2022 report concluded. “The Russian armed forces’ dire performance in Ukraine has damaged the reputation of Russian-manufactured equipment, and export orders may be diverted to replenish battlefield losses.”

The fallout from Russia’s actions in Ukraine could leave some arms deals in limbo and others drastically changed from what was originally agreed upon, resulting in the inability to get parts for maintenance or to fulfill orders altogether.

“The war in Ukraine is a public relations disaster for Russia’s DIS [defense-industrial sector],” according to the ISEAS report. “Images of wrecked and abandoned vehicles call into question the quality and reliability of Russian-manufactured military hardware.”

“To replenish its heavy losses, Moscow may direct the DIS to divert military equipment for export to recapitalize its own armed forces. This will result in delivery delays and possibly cancelations, further damaging the DIS’ reputation for reliability.”

Vietnam, one of Russia’s biggest customers in Southeast Asia, bought U.S. $7.4 billion worth of weapons and military equipment from Russia from 1995-2021, according to Radio Free Asia (RFA), accounting for more than 80% of Vietnam’s total arms imports. But now, “Vietnam has put the military modernization program on hold because of concerns over Moscow’s ability to fulfill orders, but also due to an anti-corruption drive,” Nguyen The Phuong, lecturer at the Faculty of International Relations, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics and Finance, wrote in a July 2021 research paper for ISEAS, according to RFA. (Pictured: Residents look at a destroyed Russian tank in a village just outside Ukraine’s capital.)

Some of Russia’s military equipment destroyed on the battlefield has been purchased by countries in Southeast Asia, the report noted, including:

  • T-90 tanks purchased by Vietnam and Laos.
  • Infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers purchased by Indonesia.
  • Military attack and transport helicopters purchased by Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Vietnam.
  • Air defense systems purchased by Myanmar.

“Russia’s most lucrative defense export to the region is combat aircraft, including SU-27/30 Flankers and MiG-29 Fulcrums. The reputation of Russian manufactured jets took a hit on 7 April when one of its most advanced fighters, a fourth-generation-plus SU-35, was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile over Ukraine,” the ISEAS report stated. “Vietnam has reportedly considered purchasing the SU-35, though to what extent this incident will influence its procurement decision remains to be seen.”

The signs of Russia’s continued arms export decline haven’t soured the Philippines on its intent to continue a U.S. $249 million deal signed in November 2021 to acquire Mi-17 helicopters. The Philippines made its initial payment to Russia in January.

“We do not see any likelihood of it being scrapped as of this moment,” Philippines Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in March, according to The Associated Press (AP). When asked whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might affect the purchase, Lorenzana replied, “Only time will tell,” according to AP.

IMAGE CREDIT: AFP/GETTY IMAGES

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