Russia undermines China’s One Belt, One Road scheme
REUTERS
Moscow is destroying what Beijing is trying to build. Having refused to condemn Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and suppressed domestic criticism of Russia, the People’s Republic of China is alienating many eastern European countries where it is constructing trade, investment and technology relationships under its ambitious One Belt, One Road (OBOR) infrastructure plan.
Ukraine is strategically positioned across rail, road and energy pipelines linking Russia to the rest of Europe. Since Ukraine joined Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s signature infrastructure policy in 2017, Chinese companies have been upgrading the country’s ports and subways.
In 2020, Kyiv signed a memorandum of understanding with telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies, which the United States has been trying to drive out of worldwide networks for security reasons. With a population of 44 million, Ukraine provides an attractive market for companies such as smartphone maker Xiaomi, and it is an important source of agricultural produce. China bought 30% of its corn imports from Ukraine in 2021.
With Russian army convoys advancing toward Kyiv, Beijing is stuck watching missiles wreck a country once receptive to its overtures. The attacks are galvanizing pan-European sentiment against China, which refuses to call Russia’s move an invasion. As the West and Moscow make it harder for private companies to transact, the flow of goods along the “iron silk road,” a rail system across which U.S. $75 billion of Chinese products traveled to Europe in 2021, is likely to slow.
Another casualty of war might be China’s relationship with Poland, which has been trying to strike its own balance between Beijing and Washington. Poland is a major rail node on OBOR and hosts Huawei’s regional headquarters. Having experienced tribulations under Russian dominance, it is now being swamped by Ukrainian refugees who blame China for supporting Putin. Former Soviet satellites are aligning more closely with NATO and the European Union, further undermining Beijing’s strategy in the region.
China’s investment in the EU was already cooling. Its mergers and acquisitions there dipped to 6.5 billion euros in 2020, a 10-year low. Having miscalculated by openly backing Putin, Beijing is now trying to hedge that position. Unless it can orchestrate peace, the diplomatic and commercial damage will be hard to repair. (Pictured: Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping, right, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin attend a 2019 meeting in Brasilia, Brazil, on emerging economies.)
IMAGE CREDIT: REUTERS
