Climate change to increase security risks in Indo-Pacific, U.S. intelligence report warns
Scientific forecasts indicate that climate change’s effects through 2040 will have a more severe impact on developing countries, including North Korea and several in South and Southeast Asia, according to a United States National Intelligence Council National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report. The publication, released in October 2021, warned that vulnerabilities to climate change and the inability to physically adapt could also create internal conflicts and increase the risk of instability in developing nations, including small island nations across the Pacific Ocean.
“More broadly, developing countries are likely to need to adapt to a mix of challenges that climate change will exacerbate. Ineffective water governance in developing countries will increase their vulnerability to climate effects, undermining livelihoods and health. Some will face new or more intense diseases and lower yields from existing staples of their agriculture,” according to the NIE report, titled “Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040.” “In addition, insurgents and terrorists may benefit. We assess that most of the countries where al-Qaida or ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] have a presence are highly vulnerable to climate change.”
Addressing these concerns will create additional demands on the diplomatic, economic, humanitarian and military resources of Indo-Pacific partners, the report stated, underscoring the importance of concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The White House and the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) also released climate change reports in October 2021, with the U.S. military detailing plans in its security strategy to adapt to climate change.
“Climate change is altering the strategic landscape and shaping the security environment, posing complex threats to the United States and nations around the world,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a statement. “To deter war and protect our country, the [Defense] Department must understand the ways climate change affects missions, plans and capabilities.”
Extreme weather events and other impacts of climate change could also make vulnerable populations more susceptible to radicalization and recruitment by violent extremist organizations, according to the DOD.
A United Nations report revealed that 63% of people across the Indo-Pacific considered climate change a major global emergency and wanted their leaders to do more. They’re starting to listen. For example, two weeks of summit meetings in Glasgow, Scotland, for the 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference, or COP26, concluded in early November 2021 with more than 100 world leaders pledging to end deforestation by 2030 to slow climate change. Among the Indo-Pacific signatories are Australia, Bhutan, Brunei, China, Fiji, Indonesia, Japan, Nepal, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the U.S. and Vietnam. In a statement, the signatories called their pledge essential to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, an international treaty to limit the warming of the Earth to well below 2 degrees Celsius that was adopted by 196 parties in 1995.
Across the Indo-Pacific, residents are also doing their part to combat climate change.
“People all over the region are applying their ingenuity to climate problems and coming up with solutions,” according to the U.N. “They show what’s possible, affordable and desirable to keep climate action on track in line with the Paris Agreement.”
IMAGE CREDIT: ISTOCK
